Conservatives are fond of pointing out the hypocrisy of protesting oil drilling in plastic (made from oil) kayaks or protesting logging while living in wooden houses. For purposes of argument, I'll ignore the nonsensical disconnect and pretend that it's a credible point.
Wood is potentially a sustainable resource. If you harvest it at a rate lower than can restore itself, there is no direct risk from logging. For much of the 20th century, this was indeed what was practiced, but by the 1960s, demand had exceeded capacity. Especially in the 1980s under the Reagan/Watt regime, a high fraction of the old growth lumber in America was harvested and sold off, a huge part of it to the far east.
Total worldwide consumption of wood today is about 4B cubic meters. There are about 4B hectares of forest in the world (down from 5.9B before industrialization. We've been losing about 13M hectares/yr). Canadian forests contain about 432 cubic meters per hectare. Extrapolating that to the whole world, if we were to harvest 1 cubic meter per year per hectare, the forests would thus have 432 years to recover. My forester friend tells me that if we harvest 10% or less every 15 or 20 years, that can be carried on indefinitely without harming the forest ecosystem--that's more than double that 1 m^3 per hectare rate. But that's not what we're doing. We mostly clear cut, in patches of a few hectares at a time, and during the '80s, we basically clear cut alternate quads, leaving a patchwork of tiny forests. This will recover eventually, but it'll take hundreds of years, and in the meantime, we've wrecked the local ecosystem, which will make it take longer to recover than necessary. Worse yet, we're permanently clearing areas for agriculture, industrial and residential use.
Lots of privately owned forests are harvested sustainably. We know it can be done. We need for the government to protect our public forests this same way.
Total proven oil reserves are about 1.3T bbl. Consumption has roughly tripled in the last 50 years, from about 11B bbl/yr in 1965 to about 33B bbl/yr today. This suggests that the total amount of oil that was theoretically available at the start of the 20th century was about 2T bbl. That oil took about 200M years for the earth to make. 2T/200M = 10,000. So a sustainable rate for oil is about 10,000 bbl/year. We are consuming it at 3 million times that rate.
World coal production is about 8B tonnes. The best guesses I can find say we can keep this up for about another 100 years, which suggests that there are just about 1T tonnes left and there were probably about 1.5T to start with. Like oil, hard coal takes around 200-300M years for the earth to create. That means we can sustainably harvest about 5000 Tonnes per year. But there's a difference. Soft coals such as lignite can form much more quickly, in the order of 5M years. That might give us a sustainable rate for those coals of 250,000 Tonnes per year. We use between 32,000 and 1.3M times too much to be sustainable.
01 January 2017
08 December 2016
2016 Deaths
People who are famous to me. Perhaps it's that I'm getting older so I'm aware of more people--and they're getting older too. But it seems like 2016 has been a particularly bad year.
Jan 3 Peter Naur Computer Scientist
Jan 10 David Bowie Performance Artist, Musician
Jan 14 Alan Rickman, Actor
Jan 18 Glenn Frey, Musician, The Eagles
Jan 21 Bill Johnson, Ski Racer
Jan 24 Marvin Minsky, AI Researcher
Jan 26 Abe Vigoda, Actor
Jan 28 Paul Kantner, Musician, Jefferson Airplane
Jan 28 Signe Anderson, Musician, Jefferson Airplane
Feb 4 Maurice White, Musician, Earth Wind and Fire
Feb 4 Edgar Mitchell, Astronaut, 6th man on the moon
Feb 6 Dan Hicks Musician, Dan Hicks and his Hot Licks
Feb 13 Antonin Scalia, Supreme Court Justice
Feb 16 Boutros Boutros-Ghali, UN Secretary General
Feb 19 Umberto Eco, Novelist
Feb 19 Harper Lee, Novelist
Feb 28 George Kennedy, Actor
Mar 5 Ray Tomlinson, Computer Programmer, implemented first ARPAnet email program
Mar 6 Nancy Davis Reagan, Actress, First Lady
Mar 8 George Martin, Record Producer, 5th Beatle
Mar 10 Keith Emerson, Musician, The Nice, Emerson, Lake and Palmer
Mar 10 Ernestine Anderson, Jazz Musician
Mar 21 Bob Ebeling, Engineer, tried to explain Challenger O-Rings
Mar 21 Andrew Grove, Engineer, Semiconductor executive
Mar 24 Garry Shandling, Comedian, Actor
Mar 29 Patty Duke, Actress
Apr 6 Merle Haggard, Country Musician
Apr 13 Gareth Thomas, Actor (Blakes 7)
Apr 21 Lonnie Mack, Musician
Apr 21 Prince, Musician
May 8 William Schallert, Actor (played Patty Duke's father)
May 12 Susannah Mushatt Jones, world's oldest person, age 116 years 311 days
May 19 Morley Safer, Journalist
Jun 3 Muhammad Ali, Boxer, Activist
Jun 7 Tom Perkins, Venture Capitalist
Jun 10 Gordie Howe, Hockey player
Jun 27 Alvin Toffler, Futurist
Jun 27 Simon Ramo, Engineer, co founder TRW age 103
Jun 28 Scotty Moore, Musician
Jul 2 Elie Weisel, Concentration Camp Victim, Author, Activist
Jul 19 Garry Marshall, Director
Jul 24 Marni Nixon, Singer
Jul 31 Seymour Papert, Computer Scientist
Aug 3 Chris Amon, Racing driver
Aug 11 Glenn Yarbrough, Folksinger
Aug 15 Bobby Hutcherson, Jazz Musician
Aug 17 Arthur Hiller, Movie Director
Aug 19 John McLaughlin, TV Pundit
Aug 22 Jean-Baptiste "Toots" Thielemans, Jazz Musician
Aug 29 Gene Wilder, Actor
Sep 5 Phyllis Schlafly, Conservative
Sep 16 Edward Albee, Playwright
Sep 25 Arnold Palmer, Golfer
Sep 28 Shimon Peres, Israeli President & Prime Minister, Peacemaker
Oct 2 Neville Marriner, Musician, Conductor
Oct 5 Brock Yates, Motorsports journalist
Oct 18 David Bunnell, Computer journalist
Oct 22 Sheri Tepper, Science Fiction writer
Nov 7 Leonard Cohen Poet, Musician
Nov 7 Janet Reno, US Attorney General
Nov 7 Roy Kerth, UC Berkeley physicist
Nov 8 American Freedom and Democracy
Nov 11 Robert Vaughn, Actor
Nov 13 Leon Russell, Musician
Nov 14 Gwen Ifill, TV Journalist
Nov 15 Mose Allison, Jazz Musician
Nov 16 Melvin Laird, Politician
Nov 17 Samuel Ross Williams (Smerdyakov Flying Karamozov)
Nov 24 Florence Henderson, Actress
Nov 25 Fidel Castro, Dictator
Nov 25 Ron Glass, Actor
Nov 26 Fritz Weaver, Actor, Narrator
Dec 7 Paul Elvstrom Sailor
Dec 7 Greg Lake Musician, King Crimson, Emerson, Lake & Palmer
Dec 8 John Glenn Astronaut, Test Pilot, US Senator
Dec 17 Henry Heimlich, Physician, inventor of the Heimlich Maneuver
Dec 18 Zsa Zsa Gabor, Actress
Dec 25 Jeffrey Hayden. TV Director, Producer, Eva Marie Saint's husband.
Dec 25 George Michael, Singer
Dec 25 Vera Rubin, Astrophysicst
Dec 27 Carrie Fisher, Actress, Author
Dec 28 Debbie Reynolds, Actress, Dancer, Carrie Fisher's mother.
Dec 30 Tyrus Wong, Cartoonist (Bambi)
Dec 31 William Christopher, Actor (Father Mulcahey on MASH)
Jan 3 Peter Naur Computer Scientist
Jan 10 David Bowie Performance Artist, Musician
Jan 14 Alan Rickman, Actor
Jan 18 Glenn Frey, Musician, The Eagles
Jan 21 Bill Johnson, Ski Racer
Jan 24 Marvin Minsky, AI Researcher
Jan 26 Abe Vigoda, Actor
Jan 28 Paul Kantner, Musician, Jefferson Airplane
Jan 28 Signe Anderson, Musician, Jefferson Airplane
Feb 4 Maurice White, Musician, Earth Wind and Fire
Feb 4 Edgar Mitchell, Astronaut, 6th man on the moon
Feb 6 Dan Hicks Musician, Dan Hicks and his Hot Licks
Feb 13 Antonin Scalia, Supreme Court Justice
Feb 16 Boutros Boutros-Ghali, UN Secretary General
Feb 19 Umberto Eco, Novelist
Feb 19 Harper Lee, Novelist
Feb 28 George Kennedy, Actor
Mar 5 Ray Tomlinson, Computer Programmer, implemented first ARPAnet email program
Mar 6 Nancy Davis Reagan, Actress, First Lady
Mar 8 George Martin, Record Producer, 5th Beatle
Mar 10 Keith Emerson, Musician, The Nice, Emerson, Lake and Palmer
Mar 10 Ernestine Anderson, Jazz Musician
Mar 21 Bob Ebeling, Engineer, tried to explain Challenger O-Rings
Mar 21 Andrew Grove, Engineer, Semiconductor executive
Mar 24 Garry Shandling, Comedian, Actor
Mar 29 Patty Duke, Actress
Apr 6 Merle Haggard, Country Musician
Apr 13 Gareth Thomas, Actor (Blakes 7)
Apr 21 Lonnie Mack, Musician
Apr 21 Prince, Musician
May 8 William Schallert, Actor (played Patty Duke's father)
May 12 Susannah Mushatt Jones, world's oldest person, age 116 years 311 days
May 19 Morley Safer, Journalist
Jun 3 Muhammad Ali, Boxer, Activist
Jun 7 Tom Perkins, Venture Capitalist
Jun 10 Gordie Howe, Hockey player
Jun 27 Alvin Toffler, Futurist
Jun 27 Simon Ramo, Engineer, co founder TRW age 103
Jun 28 Scotty Moore, Musician
Jul 2 Elie Weisel, Concentration Camp Victim, Author, Activist
Jul 19 Garry Marshall, Director
Jul 24 Marni Nixon, Singer
Jul 31 Seymour Papert, Computer Scientist
Aug 3 Chris Amon, Racing driver
Aug 11 Glenn Yarbrough, Folksinger
Aug 15 Bobby Hutcherson, Jazz Musician
Aug 17 Arthur Hiller, Movie Director
Aug 19 John McLaughlin, TV Pundit
Aug 22 Jean-Baptiste "Toots" Thielemans, Jazz Musician
Aug 29 Gene Wilder, Actor
Sep 5 Phyllis Schlafly, Conservative
Sep 16 Edward Albee, Playwright
Sep 25 Arnold Palmer, Golfer
Sep 28 Shimon Peres, Israeli President & Prime Minister, Peacemaker
Oct 2 Neville Marriner, Musician, Conductor
Oct 5 Brock Yates, Motorsports journalist
Oct 18 David Bunnell, Computer journalist
Oct 22 Sheri Tepper, Science Fiction writer
Nov 7 Leonard Cohen Poet, Musician
Nov 7 Janet Reno, US Attorney General
Nov 7 Roy Kerth, UC Berkeley physicist
Nov 8 American Freedom and Democracy
Nov 11 Robert Vaughn, Actor
Nov 13 Leon Russell, Musician
Nov 14 Gwen Ifill, TV Journalist
Nov 15 Mose Allison, Jazz Musician
Nov 16 Melvin Laird, Politician
Nov 17 Samuel Ross Williams (Smerdyakov Flying Karamozov)
Nov 24 Florence Henderson, Actress
Nov 25 Fidel Castro, Dictator
Nov 25 Ron Glass, Actor
Nov 26 Fritz Weaver, Actor, Narrator
Dec 7 Paul Elvstrom Sailor
Dec 7 Greg Lake Musician, King Crimson, Emerson, Lake & Palmer
Dec 8 John Glenn Astronaut, Test Pilot, US Senator
Dec 17 Henry Heimlich, Physician, inventor of the Heimlich Maneuver
Dec 18 Zsa Zsa Gabor, Actress
Dec 25 Jeffrey Hayden. TV Director, Producer, Eva Marie Saint's husband.
Dec 25 George Michael, Singer
Dec 25 Vera Rubin, Astrophysicst
Dec 27 Carrie Fisher, Actress, Author
Dec 28 Debbie Reynolds, Actress, Dancer, Carrie Fisher's mother.
Dec 30 Tyrus Wong, Cartoonist (Bambi)
Dec 31 William Christopher, Actor (Father Mulcahey on MASH)
02 December 2016
Suggested Supercharger Locations, II
I've made so many addenda to my original version of this I think it's time for a new start. Tesla has done lots of what I suggested (although there's little evidence they listen to me).
I-5 improvements: There are a bunch of biggish gaps. The worst would be solved by adding a station near Roseburg, OR (it's 138 miles from Springfield to Grants Pass, but southbound it's uphill, so when it's cold, my car drinks about 190 miles of rated range). A station near Longview, WA, would allow Seattle<->California travelers like me to stop only once on the way to Eugene instead of two as today, and relieve some of the present crowding at Centralia. Mount Shasta and Grants Pass are only four berths--more are needed. Better would be to add sites: Ashland or Yreka, perhaps?
We really need superchargers close to Seattle, and to a lesser degree, Portland. Where these are important is for out-of-towners doing one-day visits. The new pricing model may help this, because it will inhibit locals from doing their daily charging there. (Although there needs to be a better option for people who can't get a home charger for some reason. Home charging is the single best thing about an electric car, I think). A charger near Seattle is also needed for people trying to get to Ellensburg and points east from Burlington or Centralia.
Olympic Peninsula: Aberdeen is under construction. Something is needed between Sequim and Forks. Dare I ask for both? (There's a CHAdeMO in Port Angeles and several J1772s and 14-50s in RV places, but more is needed)
North Cascades: Route 20 (which is closed for the winter as I write this) is one of the prettiest drives anywhere. Plug-in North Central Washington has been installing 70+ amp L2 J1772s (Newhalem, Winthrop, Twisp, Omak, Pateros, Waterville, Wenatchee, Coles Corner near Leavenworth, probably more), many of which are free and seem to be well maintained, which is awesome, but that's about 5 hours of waiting between Ellensburg and Burlington even if you have dual chargers. Put a supercharger at Twisp or Winthrop, and Leavenworth. Make sure there's plenty of destination charging at the Stevens Pass ski resort (there appears to be none at present)
Slightly related: Ellensburg is too small (5 stalls) and is often ICEd. It's the logical place though. Alternatives are needed. One possibility would be to put a new supercharger in Cle Elum, which would relieve the pressure in Ellensburg and take 30 miles off a Seattle to Leavenworth trip via Snoqualmie Pass. Another one in George or Moses Lake. There's often a queue in Ellensburg after a show at the gorge.
South Cascades: Seattle or Tacoma to Mount Rainier Crystal Mountain is right on the limit and Seattle-Paradise is about 110 mountain miles each way. Too far, but only a little. There are NO destination chargers listed on plugshare for either route or the ski resort. A few restaurants would do well to add a charger anywhere along there--an hour at 40 amps would make a big difference. There are several NEMA 14-50s (and one 10-50) on US-12. A start but not good enough. A supercharger somewhere near Packwood would open this route up.
There needs to be a reasonably direct route between Reno and Spokane. Right now you need to go west to I-5 (over 300 miles out of your way) or east almost to Salt Lake (even more). Two suggestions. The simple one would be to put a charger at Burns Junction, where US-95 and OR-78 meet. Traffic is probably so light it could be a single supercharger. A prettier and slightly more direct (but not really shorter) option would be to use US-97 and/or 395. A start has been made on US-97 with Bend and Klamath, OR. It's 250 mountainous miles between Klamath and Reno, so there should probably be two more. Susanville, and probably somewhere around Bieber, Adin or Alturas.
101 is technically complete, but Eureka<->Ukiah is 156 hilly miles, which is a problem when it's cold and wet. Also, CA 1 through Mendocino and Fort Bragg are a lovely, albeit twisty drive. I'm thinking a charger in Leggett on 101 and another near Point Arena or Sea Ranch. Maybe Bodega Bay? (that's where Alfred Hitchcock's "The Birds" was filmed)
I-80. Nebraska, which a few weeks ago had zero superchargers, will soon have four, all on I-80. Another 3 or 4 in southern Wyoming and I-80 will be complete.
I-15 is almost complete. Lima, MT is almost finished but progress has stopped for almost two months. There should be at least two more, one near Great Falls and one either near the border on I-15 or at East Glacier Village on US-2. I'm very happy that they put one at West Yellowstone and in Jackson, which almost makes the park accessible.
TransCanada Highway. You can get from Vancouver to Calgary but then it just stops...and doesn't start up again until you're almost to Toronto. Over 2000 miles/3300km.
I am mystified why I-94 is taking so long. It's fossil fuel country--perhaps it's local intransigence.
Something similar may be happening with I-10.
Route 66 is now complete, Chicago to L.A and all the cities named in the song have a supercharger in or in the town next door. Another great driving song, Little Feat's "Willin", has four named cities: Tuscon, Tucumcari, Tehachapi and Tonopah. The only one without a supercharger is Tuscon, which is the next logical place on I-10. Tehachapi's is 15 miles away, which is close enough, I think.
addenda 23Feb2017
Progress is happening on I-10. It is now possible to get to El Paso, TX and a charger is planned for there. After that there will be a gap through Tuscon 370 miles long, which will take 2 or 3 new chargers.
The Michigan Upper Peninsula is presently unreachable. Mackinaw is 175 fairly flat miles from Bay City on I-75, which is 276 miles along the lake shore to Green Bay. I'd put one first somewhere near Mackinaw, then midway to Green Bay, for example at Escanaba. The UP is beautiful country--it's worth a trip.
It seems to me that there would be something appropriate about having a charger at the Grand Coulee Dam. It's not a high traffic area but it's pretty much where the electricity comes from here in the northwest. Plugshare says there's a NEMA 14-50 at an RV park near there but that's it. It's 117 miles from Coeur d'Alene and 120 from Ellensburg, so it's already a sort of reasonable place. In any case, there surely should be a few J1772s at the visitor center even if they don't spring for a Tesla Supercharger.
I-5 improvements: There are a bunch of biggish gaps. The worst would be solved by adding a station near Roseburg, OR (it's 138 miles from Springfield to Grants Pass, but southbound it's uphill, so when it's cold, my car drinks about 190 miles of rated range). A station near Longview, WA, would allow Seattle<->California travelers like me to stop only once on the way to Eugene instead of two as today, and relieve some of the present crowding at Centralia. Mount Shasta and Grants Pass are only four berths--more are needed. Better would be to add sites: Ashland or Yreka, perhaps?
We really need superchargers close to Seattle, and to a lesser degree, Portland. Where these are important is for out-of-towners doing one-day visits. The new pricing model may help this, because it will inhibit locals from doing their daily charging there. (Although there needs to be a better option for people who can't get a home charger for some reason. Home charging is the single best thing about an electric car, I think). A charger near Seattle is also needed for people trying to get to Ellensburg and points east from Burlington or Centralia.
Olympic Peninsula: Aberdeen is under construction. Something is needed between Sequim and Forks. Dare I ask for both? (There's a CHAdeMO in Port Angeles and several J1772s and 14-50s in RV places, but more is needed)
North Cascades: Route 20 (which is closed for the winter as I write this) is one of the prettiest drives anywhere. Plug-in North Central Washington has been installing 70+ amp L2 J1772s (Newhalem, Winthrop, Twisp, Omak, Pateros, Waterville, Wenatchee, Coles Corner near Leavenworth, probably more), many of which are free and seem to be well maintained, which is awesome, but that's about 5 hours of waiting between Ellensburg and Burlington even if you have dual chargers. Put a supercharger at Twisp or Winthrop, and Leavenworth. Make sure there's plenty of destination charging at the Stevens Pass ski resort (there appears to be none at present)
Slightly related: Ellensburg is too small (5 stalls) and is often ICEd. It's the logical place though. Alternatives are needed. One possibility would be to put a new supercharger in Cle Elum, which would relieve the pressure in Ellensburg and take 30 miles off a Seattle to Leavenworth trip via Snoqualmie Pass. Another one in George or Moses Lake. There's often a queue in Ellensburg after a show at the gorge.
South Cascades: Seattle or Tacoma to Mount Rainier Crystal Mountain is right on the limit and Seattle-Paradise is about 110 mountain miles each way. Too far, but only a little. There are NO destination chargers listed on plugshare for either route or the ski resort. A few restaurants would do well to add a charger anywhere along there--an hour at 40 amps would make a big difference. There are several NEMA 14-50s (and one 10-50) on US-12. A start but not good enough. A supercharger somewhere near Packwood would open this route up.
There needs to be a reasonably direct route between Reno and Spokane. Right now you need to go west to I-5 (over 300 miles out of your way) or east almost to Salt Lake (even more). Two suggestions. The simple one would be to put a charger at Burns Junction, where US-95 and OR-78 meet. Traffic is probably so light it could be a single supercharger. A prettier and slightly more direct (but not really shorter) option would be to use US-97 and/or 395. A start has been made on US-97 with Bend and Klamath, OR. It's 250 mountainous miles between Klamath and Reno, so there should probably be two more. Susanville, and probably somewhere around Bieber, Adin or Alturas.
101 is technically complete, but Eureka<->Ukiah is 156 hilly miles, which is a problem when it's cold and wet. Also, CA 1 through Mendocino and Fort Bragg are a lovely, albeit twisty drive. I'm thinking a charger in Leggett on 101 and another near Point Arena or Sea Ranch. Maybe Bodega Bay? (that's where Alfred Hitchcock's "The Birds" was filmed)
I-80. Nebraska, which a few weeks ago had zero superchargers, will soon have four, all on I-80. Another 3 or 4 in southern Wyoming and I-80 will be complete.
I-15 is almost complete. Lima, MT is almost finished but progress has stopped for almost two months. There should be at least two more, one near Great Falls and one either near the border on I-15 or at East Glacier Village on US-2. I'm very happy that they put one at West Yellowstone and in Jackson, which almost makes the park accessible.
TransCanada Highway. You can get from Vancouver to Calgary but then it just stops...and doesn't start up again until you're almost to Toronto. Over 2000 miles/3300km.
I am mystified why I-94 is taking so long. It's fossil fuel country--perhaps it's local intransigence.
Something similar may be happening with I-10.
Route 66 is now complete, Chicago to L.A and all the cities named in the song have a supercharger in or in the town next door. Another great driving song, Little Feat's "Willin", has four named cities: Tuscon, Tucumcari, Tehachapi and Tonopah. The only one without a supercharger is Tuscon, which is the next logical place on I-10. Tehachapi's is 15 miles away, which is close enough, I think.
addenda 23Feb2017
Progress is happening on I-10. It is now possible to get to El Paso, TX and a charger is planned for there. After that there will be a gap through Tuscon 370 miles long, which will take 2 or 3 new chargers.
The Michigan Upper Peninsula is presently unreachable. Mackinaw is 175 fairly flat miles from Bay City on I-75, which is 276 miles along the lake shore to Green Bay. I'd put one first somewhere near Mackinaw, then midway to Green Bay, for example at Escanaba. The UP is beautiful country--it's worth a trip.
It seems to me that there would be something appropriate about having a charger at the Grand Coulee Dam. It's not a high traffic area but it's pretty much where the electricity comes from here in the northwest. Plugshare says there's a NEMA 14-50 at an RV park near there but that's it. It's 117 miles from Coeur d'Alene and 120 from Ellensburg, so it's already a sort of reasonable place. In any case, there surely should be a few J1772s at the visitor center even if they don't spring for a Tesla Supercharger.
23 November 2016
Birds Killed by.....
During the campaign, Trump railed about windmills, emphasizing the birds killed by them and the supposed hypocrisy of liberals for wanting windmills despite this problem., At his rallies, he often expressed it as "killing all the birds". So I did a little research. All these numbers are bird mortality for the US
0.2-.35M Windmills
1-2M Oil and wastewater pits
15M Hunters
60M Collisions with cars
72M Pesticides
174M Collisions with power lines
400-900M Collisions with windows
1400-3700M Cats
So windows are at least 1000 times more dangerous to birds than are windmills. And cats. We need to ban cats and windows!!!!
Sheesh!
Of course we should do everything reasonable to minimize all of these, but the idea that it would be a reason to not build windmills is foolish. The oil business kills far more.
The real reason he doesn't like windmills is because some would be built in the view of one of his resorts and he thinks that would reduce the price he could charge (maybe, maybe not), but more importantly, he is beholden to fossil fuel interests and wants to drag his feet as much as possible on the inevitable switch to renewables.
He also claimed that all of the wind turbines come from Germany and Japan. Uh, no, there are several wind turbine manufacturers in the US, and GE owns wind companies in several other countries.
China 10
South Korea 6
Germany 4
US 3
Japan 3
Spain 2
Denmark 1. but it's by far the biggest
There were 88,000 wind power workers in the US at the start of 2016, growing at about 20% per year. The American Wind Energy Association estimates that there will be 380,000 wind power jobs in the US by 2030. The vast majority of these are in rural areas or semi-rural areas. There were 63,000 US jobs in the coal business in 2015 and this number can only decline. Virtually all coal mining is done in strip mines and mountaintop removal, which substitutes big machines for workers, and there is nothing Trump or anyone else can do to change this.
addenda 10 Mar 2017
Predatory birds like eagles are particularly susceptible to poisoning because many of them are also scavengers. A particularly serious problem is birds and animals killed by hunters and abandoned, either because the hunter only took enough to make a trophy, or because they couldn't find their victim. Eagles and other scavengers eat the decaying flesh, including the lead shot. Lead is a slow neurotoxin, so they don't die immediately, but their thinking and coordination is damaged, and they often crash into things that they'd have otherwise been able to avoid.
Eagles and other raptors are also particularly susceptible to being hit by windmills, because their hunting methods may put them at the same height as the moving blades.
0.2-.35M Windmills
1-2M Oil and wastewater pits
15M Hunters
60M Collisions with cars
72M Pesticides
174M Collisions with power lines
400-900M Collisions with windows
1400-3700M Cats
So windows are at least 1000 times more dangerous to birds than are windmills. And cats. We need to ban cats and windows!!!!
Sheesh!
Of course we should do everything reasonable to minimize all of these, but the idea that it would be a reason to not build windmills is foolish. The oil business kills far more.
The real reason he doesn't like windmills is because some would be built in the view of one of his resorts and he thinks that would reduce the price he could charge (maybe, maybe not), but more importantly, he is beholden to fossil fuel interests and wants to drag his feet as much as possible on the inevitable switch to renewables.
He also claimed that all of the wind turbines come from Germany and Japan. Uh, no, there are several wind turbine manufacturers in the US, and GE owns wind companies in several other countries.
China 10
South Korea 6
Germany 4
US 3
Japan 3
Spain 2
Denmark 1. but it's by far the biggest
There were 88,000 wind power workers in the US at the start of 2016, growing at about 20% per year. The American Wind Energy Association estimates that there will be 380,000 wind power jobs in the US by 2030. The vast majority of these are in rural areas or semi-rural areas. There were 63,000 US jobs in the coal business in 2015 and this number can only decline. Virtually all coal mining is done in strip mines and mountaintop removal, which substitutes big machines for workers, and there is nothing Trump or anyone else can do to change this.
addenda 10 Mar 2017
Predatory birds like eagles are particularly susceptible to poisoning because many of them are also scavengers. A particularly serious problem is birds and animals killed by hunters and abandoned, either because the hunter only took enough to make a trophy, or because they couldn't find their victim. Eagles and other scavengers eat the decaying flesh, including the lead shot. Lead is a slow neurotoxin, so they don't die immediately, but their thinking and coordination is damaged, and they often crash into things that they'd have otherwise been able to avoid.
Eagles and other raptors are also particularly susceptible to being hit by windmills, because their hunting methods may put them at the same height as the moving blades.
07 November 2016
Living Presidents
I've come down with a cold, so between naps, I've been using wikipedia to figure out how many living presidents and ex-presidents there have been at any one time.:
1800 1: John Adams. Washington died in Dec 1799
1801 2: Thomas Jefferson and John Adams (both died in 1826)
1809 3: James Madison (1836), Thomas Jefferson and John Adams
1817 4: James Monroe (1831), Madison, Jefferson and Adams
1825 5: John Quincy Adams (1848), Monroe, Madison, Jefferson, Adams
1826 3: Adams Sr and Jefferson died in July: Adams Jr, Monroe, Madison
1829 4: Andrew Jackson (1845), Adams, Monroe, Madison
1831 3: Jackson, Adams, Madison
1836 2: Jackson, Adams
1837 3: Martin van Buren (1862), Jackson, Adams
1841 4: William H Harrison (1841), Van Buren, Jackson, Adams
1841 4: John Tyler (1862), Van Buren, Jackson, Adams
1845 5: James K Polk (1849), Tyler, Van Buren, Jackson, Adams
1845 4: Jackson died in June: Polk, Tyler, Van Buren, Adams
1848 3: Polk, Tyler, Van Buren
1849 3: Zachary Taylor(1850), Tyler, Van Buren
1850 3: Millard Fillmore (1874), Tyler, Van Buren
1853 4: Franklin Pierce (1869), Fillmore, Tyler, Van Buren
1857 5: James Buchanan (1868), Pierce, Fillmore, Tyler, Van Buren
1861 6: Abraham Lincoln (1865), Buchanan, Pierce, Fillmore, Tyler, Van Buren
1862 4: Lincoln, Buchanan, Pierce, Fillmore
1865 4: Andrew Johnson (1875), Buchanan, Pierce, Fillmore
1868 3: Johnson, Pierce, Fillmore
1869 4: Ulysses S Grant (1885), Johnson, Pierce, Fillmore
1869 3: Grant, Johnson, Fillmore
1874 2: Grant, Johnson
1875 1: Grant
1877 2: Rutherford B. Hayes (1893), Grant
1881 3: James Garfield (1881), Hayes, Grant
1881 3: Chester A Arthur (1886), Hayes, Grant
1885 4: Grover Cleveland (1908), Arthur, Hayes, Grant
1885 3: Cleveland, Arthur, Hayes
1886 2: Cleveland, Hayes
1889 3: Benjamin Harrison (1901), Cleveland, Hayes
1893 2: Harrison, Cleveland
1897 3: William McKinley (1901), Harrison, Cleveland
1901 2: Theodore Roosevelt (1919), Cleveland
1908 1: Roosevelt
1909 2: William H Taft (1930), Roosevelt
1913 3: Woodrow Wilson (1924), Taft, Roosevelt
1919 2: Wilson, Taft
1921 3: Warren G Harding (1923), Wilson, Taft
1923 3: Calvin Coolidge (1833), Wilson, Taft
1924 2: Coolidge, Taft
1929 3: Herbert Hoover (1964), Coolidge, Taft
1930 2: Hoover, Coolidge
1933 1: Coolidge died in January. FDR took office in March. for those 2 months, Hoover was the only living president
1933 2: Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1945), Hoover
1945 2: Harry S Truman (1972), Hoover
1954 3: Dwight Eisenhower (1969), Truman, Hoover
1961 4: John F Kennedy (1963), Ike, Truman, Hoover
1963 4: Lyndon Baines Johnson (1973), Ike, Truman, Hoover
1964 3: Johnson, Ike, Truman
1969 4: Richard Milhous Nixon(1994), Johnson, Ike, Truman
1969 3: Ike died in March. Nixon, Johnson, Truman
1972 2: Nixon, Johnson
1973 1: Nixon
1974 2: Gerald Ford (2006), Nixon
1977 3: James E Carter(still alive), Ford, Nixon
1981 4: Ronald Reagan (2004), Carter, Ford, Nixon
1989 5: George HW Bush (still alive), Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon
1993 6: William Clinton (still alive), Bush, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon
1994 5: Clinton, Bush, Reagan, Carter, Ford
2001 6: George W Bush (still alive), Clinton, HW, Reagan, Carter, Ford
2004 5: W, Clinton, HW, Carter, Ford
2006 4: W, Clinton, HW, Carter
2009 5: Barack Obama (still alive), W, Clinton, HW, Carter
There have been 3 times that we've had 6 living presidents and ex-presidents:
1861 to early 1862, 1993 to the death of Nixon in 1994, and 2001-2004.
We may have another starting next year.
There have been 5 times that there were no living ex-presidents: 1799-1801, 1875-77, 1908-9, 1933, 1973-4
addenda 1 Dec 2018. GHW Bush died yesterday, so there are two new lines:
2017 6: Trump, Obama, W, Clinton, HW, Carter
2018 5: Trump, Obama, W, Clinton, Carter
I was hoping Trump would be run out of town on a rail before HW or Carter died and we'd have 7 for the first time, but no such luck.
1800 1: John Adams. Washington died in Dec 1799
1801 2: Thomas Jefferson and John Adams (both died in 1826)
1809 3: James Madison (1836), Thomas Jefferson and John Adams
1817 4: James Monroe (1831), Madison, Jefferson and Adams
1825 5: John Quincy Adams (1848), Monroe, Madison, Jefferson, Adams
1826 3: Adams Sr and Jefferson died in July: Adams Jr, Monroe, Madison
1829 4: Andrew Jackson (1845), Adams, Monroe, Madison
1831 3: Jackson, Adams, Madison
1836 2: Jackson, Adams
1837 3: Martin van Buren (1862), Jackson, Adams
1841 4: William H Harrison (1841), Van Buren, Jackson, Adams
1841 4: John Tyler (1862), Van Buren, Jackson, Adams
1845 5: James K Polk (1849), Tyler, Van Buren, Jackson, Adams
1845 4: Jackson died in June: Polk, Tyler, Van Buren, Adams
1848 3: Polk, Tyler, Van Buren
1849 3: Zachary Taylor(1850), Tyler, Van Buren
1850 3: Millard Fillmore (1874), Tyler, Van Buren
1853 4: Franklin Pierce (1869), Fillmore, Tyler, Van Buren
1857 5: James Buchanan (1868), Pierce, Fillmore, Tyler, Van Buren
1861 6: Abraham Lincoln (1865), Buchanan, Pierce, Fillmore, Tyler, Van Buren
1862 4: Lincoln, Buchanan, Pierce, Fillmore
1865 4: Andrew Johnson (1875), Buchanan, Pierce, Fillmore
1868 3: Johnson, Pierce, Fillmore
1869 4: Ulysses S Grant (1885), Johnson, Pierce, Fillmore
1869 3: Grant, Johnson, Fillmore
1874 2: Grant, Johnson
1875 1: Grant
1877 2: Rutherford B. Hayes (1893), Grant
1881 3: James Garfield (1881), Hayes, Grant
1881 3: Chester A Arthur (1886), Hayes, Grant
1885 4: Grover Cleveland (1908), Arthur, Hayes, Grant
1885 3: Cleveland, Arthur, Hayes
1886 2: Cleveland, Hayes
1889 3: Benjamin Harrison (1901), Cleveland, Hayes
1893 2: Harrison, Cleveland
1897 3: William McKinley (1901), Harrison, Cleveland
1901 2: Theodore Roosevelt (1919), Cleveland
1908 1: Roosevelt
1909 2: William H Taft (1930), Roosevelt
1913 3: Woodrow Wilson (1924), Taft, Roosevelt
1919 2: Wilson, Taft
1921 3: Warren G Harding (1923), Wilson, Taft
1923 3: Calvin Coolidge (1833), Wilson, Taft
1924 2: Coolidge, Taft
1929 3: Herbert Hoover (1964), Coolidge, Taft
1930 2: Hoover, Coolidge
1933 1: Coolidge died in January. FDR took office in March. for those 2 months, Hoover was the only living president
1933 2: Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1945), Hoover
1945 2: Harry S Truman (1972), Hoover
1954 3: Dwight Eisenhower (1969), Truman, Hoover
1961 4: John F Kennedy (1963), Ike, Truman, Hoover
1963 4: Lyndon Baines Johnson (1973), Ike, Truman, Hoover
1964 3: Johnson, Ike, Truman
1969 4: Richard Milhous Nixon(1994), Johnson, Ike, Truman
1969 3: Ike died in March. Nixon, Johnson, Truman
1972 2: Nixon, Johnson
1973 1: Nixon
1974 2: Gerald Ford (2006), Nixon
1977 3: James E Carter(still alive), Ford, Nixon
1981 4: Ronald Reagan (2004), Carter, Ford, Nixon
1989 5: George HW Bush (still alive), Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon
1993 6: William Clinton (still alive), Bush, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon
1994 5: Clinton, Bush, Reagan, Carter, Ford
2001 6: George W Bush (still alive), Clinton, HW, Reagan, Carter, Ford
2004 5: W, Clinton, HW, Carter, Ford
2006 4: W, Clinton, HW, Carter
2009 5: Barack Obama (still alive), W, Clinton, HW, Carter
There have been 3 times that we've had 6 living presidents and ex-presidents:
1861 to early 1862, 1993 to the death of Nixon in 1994, and 2001-2004.
We may have another starting next year.
There have been 5 times that there were no living ex-presidents: 1799-1801, 1875-77, 1908-9, 1933, 1973-4
addenda 1 Dec 2018. GHW Bush died yesterday, so there are two new lines:
2017 6: Trump, Obama, W, Clinton, HW, Carter
2018 5: Trump, Obama, W, Clinton, Carter
I was hoping Trump would be run out of town on a rail before HW or Carter died and we'd have 7 for the first time, but no such luck.
addenda 19 Mar 2021
2021 6: Biden, Trump, Obama, W, Clinton, Carter
To their credit, all living ex presidents had sharply rebuked Trump, including the second worst, GW Bush, who looks positively Periclean in comparison.
21 October 2016
Biggest Landslides
Sorted by percentage
1: 1920: Warren Harding & Calvin Coolidge (R) vs James M Cox & FDR
16,144,093 to 9,139,661 (7,004,432 differential)
60.3% to 34.2% (26.1%)
404 to 127 electors
One of our most corrupt presidents and one of the most popular during his time in office.
2: 1924: Calvin Coolidge & Charles Dawes(R) v John W Davis & Charles W Bryan(D) v Robert La Follette (Progressive)
15,723,789 to 8,386,242 to 4,831,706 (7,337,547 differential)
54% to 28.8% (25.2%)
382 to 136 to 13 electors
Davis, a southern democrat and La Follete, a Wisconsin progressive, split the D vote, making the landslide appear larger than it really was. Harding and Coolidge presided over the bubble that led to the great depression
3: 1936: FDR & John Nance Garner v Alf Landon and Frank Knox
27,747,636 to 16,679,543 (11,068,093 differential)
60.8% to 36.5% (24.3%)
523 to 8 electors.
FDR, his policies successful at beating back the depression, carried all but two states: VT and ME
4: 1972: Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew vs George McGovern & Sargent Shriver
47,168,710 to 29,173,222 (17,995,480 difference)
60.7% to 37.5% (23.2%)
520 to 17 electors
McGovern was forced to change VPs after the convention and Nixon ran a terribly dirty campaign, which included the watergate breakin.
5: 1964: LBJ & Hubert Humphrey vs Barry Goldwater & William Miller
43,127,041 to 27,175,754 (15,951,287 difference)
61.1% to 38.5% (22.6%)
486 to 52 electors
Goldwater made a lot of noise about using A-bombs against North Vietnam, which scared pretty much everybody. He won only his home state Arizona and the deep south.
6: 1904: TR & Charles Fairbanks vs Alton Parker & Henry Davis
7,630,457 to 5,083,880 (2,546,577 difference)
56.4% to 37.6% (18.8%)
336 to 140 electors
Incumbent TR was successful in foreign affairs and trustbusting, and immensely popular. He'd have easily won a third term but he elevated his protege, Taft, who turned against his successful policies.
7: 1984: Ronald Reagan & GHW Bush vs Walter Mondale & Geraldine Ferraro
54,455,472 to 37,577,352 (16,878,120 difference)
58.8% to 40.6% (18.2%)
525 to 13 electors.
Reagan touted his "Morning In America" as he presided over the end of the 10 year stagflation caused by the multiple OPEC oil embargoes. Mondale won only his home state and DC
8: 1932: FDR & John Nance Garner vs Herbert Hoover & Charles Curtis
22,821,277 to 15,761,254 (7,060,023 difference)
57.4% to 39.7% (17.7%)
472 to 59 electors
Hoover presided over the start of the Great Depression and exacerbated it immensely with his misguided policies.
9: 1928: Herbert Hoover & Charles Curtis vs Al Smith and Joe Robinson
21,427,123 to 15,015,464 (6,411,659 difference)
58.2% to 40.8% (17.4%)
444 to 87 electors
Hoover, presiding over the continuing bubble, ran against Smith, the first Catholic to run for president.
10: 1832: Andrew Jackson & Martin van Buren vs Henry Clay & John Sergeant
701,780 to 484,205 (217,575 difference)
54.2% to 37.4% (16.8%)
219 to 49 electors
127M people voted in the 2012 election. Inexplicably, there are at least 50 million people who will vote for Trump, despite, or perhaps because of his open dishonesty and appalling behavior, or any Republican, no matter how grotesquely unqualified the candidate is. At this moment, fivethirtyeight.com has Trump at 42.7% and Clinton at 49.2%, a 6.5% difference. If these numbers hold and there are 130M votes cast, Trump will get 55.5M and Hillary 63.9M votes, an 8.4M vote difference. It's a good attempt so far, but he's got to alienate a lot more voters to get the Yuugest landslide in history. He is certainly giving it his best shot.
1: 1920: Warren Harding & Calvin Coolidge (R) vs James M Cox & FDR
16,144,093 to 9,139,661 (7,004,432 differential)
60.3% to 34.2% (26.1%)
404 to 127 electors
One of our most corrupt presidents and one of the most popular during his time in office.
2: 1924: Calvin Coolidge & Charles Dawes(R) v John W Davis & Charles W Bryan(D) v Robert La Follette (Progressive)
15,723,789 to 8,386,242 to 4,831,706 (7,337,547 differential)
54% to 28.8% (25.2%)
382 to 136 to 13 electors
Davis, a southern democrat and La Follete, a Wisconsin progressive, split the D vote, making the landslide appear larger than it really was. Harding and Coolidge presided over the bubble that led to the great depression
3: 1936: FDR & John Nance Garner v Alf Landon and Frank Knox
27,747,636 to 16,679,543 (11,068,093 differential)
60.8% to 36.5% (24.3%)
523 to 8 electors.
FDR, his policies successful at beating back the depression, carried all but two states: VT and ME
4: 1972: Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew vs George McGovern & Sargent Shriver
47,168,710 to 29,173,222 (17,995,480 difference)
60.7% to 37.5% (23.2%)
520 to 17 electors
McGovern was forced to change VPs after the convention and Nixon ran a terribly dirty campaign, which included the watergate breakin.
5: 1964: LBJ & Hubert Humphrey vs Barry Goldwater & William Miller
43,127,041 to 27,175,754 (15,951,287 difference)
61.1% to 38.5% (22.6%)
486 to 52 electors
Goldwater made a lot of noise about using A-bombs against North Vietnam, which scared pretty much everybody. He won only his home state Arizona and the deep south.
6: 1904: TR & Charles Fairbanks vs Alton Parker & Henry Davis
7,630,457 to 5,083,880 (2,546,577 difference)
56.4% to 37.6% (18.8%)
336 to 140 electors
Incumbent TR was successful in foreign affairs and trustbusting, and immensely popular. He'd have easily won a third term but he elevated his protege, Taft, who turned against his successful policies.
7: 1984: Ronald Reagan & GHW Bush vs Walter Mondale & Geraldine Ferraro
54,455,472 to 37,577,352 (16,878,120 difference)
58.8% to 40.6% (18.2%)
525 to 13 electors.
Reagan touted his "Morning In America" as he presided over the end of the 10 year stagflation caused by the multiple OPEC oil embargoes. Mondale won only his home state and DC
8: 1932: FDR & John Nance Garner vs Herbert Hoover & Charles Curtis
22,821,277 to 15,761,254 (7,060,023 difference)
57.4% to 39.7% (17.7%)
472 to 59 electors
Hoover presided over the start of the Great Depression and exacerbated it immensely with his misguided policies.
9: 1928: Herbert Hoover & Charles Curtis vs Al Smith and Joe Robinson
21,427,123 to 15,015,464 (6,411,659 difference)
58.2% to 40.8% (17.4%)
444 to 87 electors
Hoover, presiding over the continuing bubble, ran against Smith, the first Catholic to run for president.
10: 1832: Andrew Jackson & Martin van Buren vs Henry Clay & John Sergeant
701,780 to 484,205 (217,575 difference)
54.2% to 37.4% (16.8%)
219 to 49 electors
127M people voted in the 2012 election. Inexplicably, there are at least 50 million people who will vote for Trump, despite, or perhaps because of his open dishonesty and appalling behavior, or any Republican, no matter how grotesquely unqualified the candidate is. At this moment, fivethirtyeight.com has Trump at 42.7% and Clinton at 49.2%, a 6.5% difference. If these numbers hold and there are 130M votes cast, Trump will get 55.5M and Hillary 63.9M votes, an 8.4M vote difference. It's a good attempt so far, but he's got to alienate a lot more voters to get the Yuugest landslide in history. He is certainly giving it his best shot.
07 October 2016
Seattle Minimum Wage
There's a widely held belief that the minimum wage hurts low wage employment. There's basically no evidence of this.
Washington state has one of the highest minimum wages in the country and among the lowest unemployment. The statewide was $9.19 in 2013 and rose to $9.47 at the start of 2015.
Seattle is one of several cities that's voted in a gradual rise to a $15 minimum wage. Prior to 1Apr2015, it was the same as the state, $9.47. On that date, it went up to $10 for small businesses and $11 for big ones. 1Jan2016, it went up a further dollar to $11 for small businesses and $12 for big ones (big is defined by 500 or more workers).
Conservatives insisted that this would surely cause a spike in unemployment. And sure enough, they managed to find one. The very conservative "American Enterprise Institute" put together BLS data that seemed to show it and conservatives and business columnists around the country jumped on board. Here's one from Forbes. Ooh, scary, 9 months (8 actually, but we all know conservatives aren't good with anything that involves numbers) of declining employment.
But wait: here's the same data, charted out to August this year
The pattern is almost exactly the same, and the rest of the MSA only got the statewide wage hike, not the city one. Note also that Seattle's unemployment is almost a point lower than the regional, despite the higher wage, and the difference seems to be the same, irrespective of what Seattle's minimum wage is. From these data, we can't be exactly sure what's causing these fluctuations, but this is pretty good evidence that it's not the minimum wage. It's plainly dominated by events that are taking place at a much larger scale than the city itself. Seattle is the biggest employment hub in the region, but it's not a large enough share to have this universal effect. And of the 5 minimum wage hikes captured in these graphs (1Jan2013, 1Jan2014, 1Jan2015, 1Apr 2015, 1Jan2016), only one of them correlates with climbing unemployment.
Washington state has one of the highest minimum wages in the country and among the lowest unemployment. The statewide was $9.19 in 2013 and rose to $9.47 at the start of 2015.
Seattle is one of several cities that's voted in a gradual rise to a $15 minimum wage. Prior to 1Apr2015, it was the same as the state, $9.47. On that date, it went up to $10 for small businesses and $11 for big ones. 1Jan2016, it went up a further dollar to $11 for small businesses and $12 for big ones (big is defined by 500 or more workers).
Conservatives insisted that this would surely cause a spike in unemployment. And sure enough, they managed to find one. The very conservative "American Enterprise Institute" put together BLS data that seemed to show it and conservatives and business columnists around the country jumped on board. Here's one from Forbes. Ooh, scary, 9 months (8 actually, but we all know conservatives aren't good with anything that involves numbers) of declining employment.
But wait: here's the same data, charted out to August this year
Note that the climb in unemployment seems to have ended, and by August (the latest that data has been compiled for, it was back down almost to the low. Well then, couldn't it have been lower without the burden of the high minimum wage? Perhaps, but notice that the biggest declines took place after the second hike, which was almost double the size of the first hike. And mysteriously, the sharpest drop occurred after the statewide wage hike that took place that January.
But here's the regional data. Seattle (population 630K) is the biggest city in King County (pop 2M), and the whole thing is in the Seattle Tacoma Bellevue Metropolitan Statistical Area (pop 3.7M)
The pattern is almost exactly the same, and the rest of the MSA only got the statewide wage hike, not the city one. Note also that Seattle's unemployment is almost a point lower than the regional, despite the higher wage, and the difference seems to be the same, irrespective of what Seattle's minimum wage is. From these data, we can't be exactly sure what's causing these fluctuations, but this is pretty good evidence that it's not the minimum wage. It's plainly dominated by events that are taking place at a much larger scale than the city itself. Seattle is the biggest employment hub in the region, but it's not a large enough share to have this universal effect. And of the 5 minimum wage hikes captured in these graphs (1Jan2013, 1Jan2014, 1Jan2015, 1Apr 2015, 1Jan2016), only one of them correlates with climbing unemployment.
This author makes a pretty good case that the insistence is not, and never has been, about the minimum wage depressing employment, but about employers wanting to keep their workers a little bit scared and desperate. Scared and desperate workers don't make waves, like demanding better wages or safer working conditions.
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