A fact is something which is objectively true. Two plus two is four. The earth is roughly spherical. President Obama was born in Hawaii in 1961, roughly two years after it became a state, to a mother born in Kansas. There are also false facts: things which are objectively false. Two plus two is seven. The earth was created roughly 6000 years ago. Liberalism is the same thing as communism and is also the same thing as fascism. The founders were a pack of gun toting anti-government, anti-tax, bible thumping activists.
An opinion is an attitude or belief about something which may be difficult to validate, or about which your opinion is really of no consequence to anybody but yourself. I think there is probably life elsewhere in the universe. Blue is a better color than Red. Fangio was a better driver than Schumacher. You can have opinions about facts. It's sad that our bodies wear out as we get older. It's annoying to pay taxes. An opinion is sort of a middle ground, between true and false facts. Opinions are sometimes validated or invalidated as we learn more about things.
Since there are a lot of things that are difficult to validate, a lot of people have opinions which may actually be facts or false facts. For example, you may think that Obama is a Kenyan terrorist. You are entitled to think anything you like of course, but if that's your belief, you are simply wrong, and acting on that belief in some way may be harmful. If you think that government tightening its belt during an economic downturn is an unquestioned necessity, you are simply wrong. It may be a little too complex for a lot of people to understand. So was the roundness of the earth before circumnavigations or satellite photos. But lots of people did understand that and knew the truth in the face of popular belief to the contrary.
A theory is an idea about the way some particular thing works in the universe. Theories can be true, false or opinion. The theory of the flat earth proved to be false. The theory of evolution proved to be true. The theory of universal gravitation is basically true, but it turns out to be more complicated than that. The theory that there is life elsewhere in the solar system remains possible but is as yet unproven one way or the other, so having an opinion either way is reasonable. The word "theory" is sometimes used to cast aspersions on a fact that the speaker is unhappy about. Not liking a theory has no bearing on whether it's true or false, nor does misunderstanding what the word means. It may have an impact on the politics around a theory, which may affect funding for research or even lead to ostracism. Thinking that something true is false or vice versa, is likely to lead you to make strategic errors.
17 October 2015
01 October 2015
Team Names
When I was growing up, the nearest division I college sports teams were the Stanford Indians. This was a commonplace sort of team name and seemed an entirely positive reference: the athletes were purporting to have the properties of native Americans: Strength, endurance, team spirit, aggressiveness, loyalty, etc. The college across the bay (which I later attended) were the Bears. More independent perhaps, but strong, aggressive, etc. The high school I went to were the "Pioneers": independent, far sighted. Beavers, Ducks, Huskies, Vikings, Mustangs, Matadors, Chargers, Cowboys. These were all meant to be positive references. Not really taken seriously as actually representational, just symbols to have on a flag.
In 1972, Stanford decided to drop the indian mascot. They struggled for a little while trying to find a replacement, temporarily using the team's primary color, Cardinal Red, and calling themselves the Stanford Cardinal. 40 years later, they've given up finding a new mascot and have stuck with the color. This made no sense to me at the time: the Indian mascot was an entirely positive and honorable allusion. Why should real indians complain?
One trouble is, the stereotypes about a few of these have them to be marauding bandits. There's some truth to it, but like many marauding bandits, they were driven to desperate measures by economic changes not of their own making*. Worse, there's an implied comparison to animals. But really, that's silly--actual cowboys, vikings, matadors, etc., are not complaining--nor should they. No insult is implied or intended.
The difference is that native Americans are still subject to real racial prejudice. The people who are being touchy about mascots named for them are trying to get attention for a real cause. It's not really the team name at all. They are trying to get better treatment for indians--on reservations, in impoverished sections of cities, and so forth. A lot of indians are trapped in a cycle of poverty that is very difficult to break out of. Horrible things have been done to them. Being touchy about team names is nothing more than a way of getting attention. A PR campaign.
There are, of course, lots of people who have confused the PR campaign for a real issue. That's what Stanford did when they changed their team name. This happens all the time. If all the teams changed their names, they would have "won", but it would deprive the native Americans of a real PR asset.
-----------------
* The Norse had a huge population boom that left a lot of people without land, so some of them went viking (it's a verb) to occupy someone elses land. At first scary, they assimilated very well. Angles, Saxons, Normans, Russians all have viking heritage. Indians were on the receiving end of this. The vikings made a colony there too, but were not as successful as they'd been in europe. 500 years later, a new set of immigrants came, but brought devastating disease with them, which made colonization much easier.
In 1972, Stanford decided to drop the indian mascot. They struggled for a little while trying to find a replacement, temporarily using the team's primary color, Cardinal Red, and calling themselves the Stanford Cardinal. 40 years later, they've given up finding a new mascot and have stuck with the color. This made no sense to me at the time: the Indian mascot was an entirely positive and honorable allusion. Why should real indians complain?
One trouble is, the stereotypes about a few of these have them to be marauding bandits. There's some truth to it, but like many marauding bandits, they were driven to desperate measures by economic changes not of their own making*. Worse, there's an implied comparison to animals. But really, that's silly--actual cowboys, vikings, matadors, etc., are not complaining--nor should they. No insult is implied or intended.
The difference is that native Americans are still subject to real racial prejudice. The people who are being touchy about mascots named for them are trying to get attention for a real cause. It's not really the team name at all. They are trying to get better treatment for indians--on reservations, in impoverished sections of cities, and so forth. A lot of indians are trapped in a cycle of poverty that is very difficult to break out of. Horrible things have been done to them. Being touchy about team names is nothing more than a way of getting attention. A PR campaign.
There are, of course, lots of people who have confused the PR campaign for a real issue. That's what Stanford did when they changed their team name. This happens all the time. If all the teams changed their names, they would have "won", but it would deprive the native Americans of a real PR asset.
-----------------
* The Norse had a huge population boom that left a lot of people without land, so some of them went viking (it's a verb) to occupy someone elses land. At first scary, they assimilated very well. Angles, Saxons, Normans, Russians all have viking heritage. Indians were on the receiving end of this. The vikings made a colony there too, but were not as successful as they'd been in europe. 500 years later, a new set of immigrants came, but brought devastating disease with them, which made colonization much easier.
30 September 2015
That Which Will Destroy Us
The incident last week of a ninth grader with an Arabic name disassembling a digital clock and passing it off as his own invention to try to impress his teachers is telling, in many ways. I actually did build a digital clock--when I was in the 11th grade, out of SN7490 SSI integrated circuits. When I saw a picture of Ahmed's clock, I knew immediately it could not possibly be a bomb and was certainly not something he'd invented. It had a big LSI chip that handled virtually everything. Ahmed is better at electronics than 90% of 9th graders for being able to take it out of its case without breaking it, but he's passing off the work of a team of professional engineers as his own. Most teachers can't be expected to know enough about electronics to know how to rate a claim of invention, but a teacher that knows so little that they can't tell that there was nothing there that could explode needs to seek another way of making their living.
In a long commentary on facebook, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, who was more precocious with electronics than I was, saw the same thing and mentioned how he really got his start in electronics because he had an idea for a prank. He did it and got into trouble--one of his teachers thought he'd made a bomb--unsurprisingly, because the device was meant to sound like one. He learned from this to keep his pranks secret. From the sound of it, his pranks were a little scarier than mine--several of them involved shocking people, and he spent a night in juvie for the fake bomb. Several of my stunts involved pyrotechnics, but I was always very careful to make sure lots of people understood what I was doing, especially my safety precautions. I still have all my eyes, ears and fingers...
Woz also said that "From the most creative people I meet in high tech, I'd suggest that slight misbehavior is an essential ingredient of creative thinking". This is exactly my experience. In fact, I'd go so far as to say, if you don't have at least a little bit of a rebel and scofflaw in you, you have basically no chance of ever doing anything very creative.
The schools today are removing a great many of the exhilarating things from the curriculum. Cuts in the arts and recess are only part of it. I made lots of things that went poof or boom or flash in chemistry lab. I learned a lot from these games. The teacher kept an eye on me and realized that I was probably the safest kid in the class, precisely because I was always looking for ways to have fun and understood, better than most, that these things could hurt me. He even helped offered suggestions for a few of my projects. He was a great teacher. Thanks, Mr. Wong. Today, most of the chemicals I used are gone. I'd have been stymied. Chemistry would have been boring.
Zero tolerance has been one of the most harmful ideas ever imposed upon the school system. Kids get major punishments for bringing toys to school. Kids need to rebel a little. It's what makes them feel different and creative, and in a lot of cases, actually be creative. If you stop the little fun, their only option becomes unsupervised fun. Big fun. Kids doing bad things, things with consequences and that may deserve real punishment. Little fun stays little and it can satisfy kids creative urges if they have enough of it.
Creativity requires rebellion. Doing the same thing over and over is not creative, but it is one of the definitions of insanity. If we stop our kids from being creative, we are over as a nation.
In a long commentary on facebook, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, who was more precocious with electronics than I was, saw the same thing and mentioned how he really got his start in electronics because he had an idea for a prank. He did it and got into trouble--one of his teachers thought he'd made a bomb--unsurprisingly, because the device was meant to sound like one. He learned from this to keep his pranks secret. From the sound of it, his pranks were a little scarier than mine--several of them involved shocking people, and he spent a night in juvie for the fake bomb. Several of my stunts involved pyrotechnics, but I was always very careful to make sure lots of people understood what I was doing, especially my safety precautions. I still have all my eyes, ears and fingers...
Woz also said that "From the most creative people I meet in high tech, I'd suggest that slight misbehavior is an essential ingredient of creative thinking". This is exactly my experience. In fact, I'd go so far as to say, if you don't have at least a little bit of a rebel and scofflaw in you, you have basically no chance of ever doing anything very creative.
The schools today are removing a great many of the exhilarating things from the curriculum. Cuts in the arts and recess are only part of it. I made lots of things that went poof or boom or flash in chemistry lab. I learned a lot from these games. The teacher kept an eye on me and realized that I was probably the safest kid in the class, precisely because I was always looking for ways to have fun and understood, better than most, that these things could hurt me. He even helped offered suggestions for a few of my projects. He was a great teacher. Thanks, Mr. Wong. Today, most of the chemicals I used are gone. I'd have been stymied. Chemistry would have been boring.
Zero tolerance has been one of the most harmful ideas ever imposed upon the school system. Kids get major punishments for bringing toys to school. Kids need to rebel a little. It's what makes them feel different and creative, and in a lot of cases, actually be creative. If you stop the little fun, their only option becomes unsupervised fun. Big fun. Kids doing bad things, things with consequences and that may deserve real punishment. Little fun stays little and it can satisfy kids creative urges if they have enough of it.
Creativity requires rebellion. Doing the same thing over and over is not creative, but it is one of the definitions of insanity. If we stop our kids from being creative, we are over as a nation.
03 September 2015
Trump the Troll part II
Trump is still doing far better than any serious pundit could have imagined, polling in the 20s, by going for the lowest, most racist, most hateful positions. It seems to me that he's capturing all the people who won't vote for any democrat because they're too nice. Today, he has signed a pledge to the GOP that he won't run as a third party candidate and made a speech that he's all in for the GOP. In my previous blog entry on this subject, I suggest that Trump is playing stalking horse for the Democrats. I see nothing to change this view.
Trump's success is only in the GOP and I'm pretty sure is only among GOP voters who are dumb enough to think that bluster and belligerence is helpful when you're playing in the big leagues. It's hard to imagine this is more than 20% of the voters under any circumstances--he'd only have to have about 10% overall support to get poll results he does. In the unlikely event that he actually wins the nomination, he'll get about 30% in the national election from the people who are more loyal to the GOP than sensible, and win only a few small states where there are very few non-republicans: Idaho, Utah, Mississippi and a few others, and lose by one of the biggest landslides in history. Success for the troll.
Because the support is functionally grass roots (even though Trump himself is the very opposite of that), if the more traditional GOP tries to run a third party candidate (Mitt Romney would be my best guess), it will end the GOP, and the defeat will be even more complete. The GOP is dumb, but I don't think that dumb.
Far more likely, the GOP will find some way of kicking Trump out of the process. Almost no matter how this happens, Trump will call foul and today's "pledge" will be torn up (and a few borderline people will turn against the GOP over this) Trump will take nearly all of his votes to the third party, and the final tally will be something like 55% for the D, 35% for the R, and 10% for Trump. The troll will have succeeded.
It's most likely that some other GOP candidate will get more votes than Trump in the end. If this happens, Trump will claim the election was rigged and will cry foul and run as a third party candidate. Given the behavior of the Republican leadership over the couple of decades, it almost certainly will be rigged, although the press may do no more about it than they did with the rigging of the 2000 and 2004 elections. Same final result, with Trump not taking quite as many votes from the GOP. Trolling success.
In any case, I think Trump has highlighted what drives an awful lot of GOP voters, and has forced the "normal" republicans to step all over themselves trying to outflank him... They are saying all sorts of things that would make them completely unelectable in a sane country and may even do that in America. He's forcing the press and even the Republicans to speak truths that they have been unwilling to give voice to for 40 years. Trump may actually achieve his slogan and "Make America Great Again", by giving an overwhelming victory to a sensible Democrat and a more progressive congress than we've had since FDR.
Trump's success is only in the GOP and I'm pretty sure is only among GOP voters who are dumb enough to think that bluster and belligerence is helpful when you're playing in the big leagues. It's hard to imagine this is more than 20% of the voters under any circumstances--he'd only have to have about 10% overall support to get poll results he does. In the unlikely event that he actually wins the nomination, he'll get about 30% in the national election from the people who are more loyal to the GOP than sensible, and win only a few small states where there are very few non-republicans: Idaho, Utah, Mississippi and a few others, and lose by one of the biggest landslides in history. Success for the troll.
Because the support is functionally grass roots (even though Trump himself is the very opposite of that), if the more traditional GOP tries to run a third party candidate (Mitt Romney would be my best guess), it will end the GOP, and the defeat will be even more complete. The GOP is dumb, but I don't think that dumb.
Far more likely, the GOP will find some way of kicking Trump out of the process. Almost no matter how this happens, Trump will call foul and today's "pledge" will be torn up (and a few borderline people will turn against the GOP over this) Trump will take nearly all of his votes to the third party, and the final tally will be something like 55% for the D, 35% for the R, and 10% for Trump. The troll will have succeeded.
It's most likely that some other GOP candidate will get more votes than Trump in the end. If this happens, Trump will claim the election was rigged and will cry foul and run as a third party candidate. Given the behavior of the Republican leadership over the couple of decades, it almost certainly will be rigged, although the press may do no more about it than they did with the rigging of the 2000 and 2004 elections. Same final result, with Trump not taking quite as many votes from the GOP. Trolling success.
In any case, I think Trump has highlighted what drives an awful lot of GOP voters, and has forced the "normal" republicans to step all over themselves trying to outflank him... They are saying all sorts of things that would make them completely unelectable in a sane country and may even do that in America. He's forcing the press and even the Republicans to speak truths that they have been unwilling to give voice to for 40 years. Trump may actually achieve his slogan and "Make America Great Again", by giving an overwhelming victory to a sensible Democrat and a more progressive congress than we've had since FDR.
22 August 2015
Cars That All Look the Same
It seems apparent that a lot of cars are converging on a very similar design. Sorted by price:
Ford Fusion 2013-Present
Audi A7 2010-Present
Tesla Model S 2012 Present
Jaguar XJ 2007,10-Present
Maserati Quatroporte 2013-Present
Aston Martin Rapide S 2010-Present
I think Jaguar gets primacy here, because their first car that looked a little like this dates from 1996 and the 2 door XJR came out in 2007 with almost exactly this shape. Much of their present line looks pretty similar.
From a glance, the Tesla, Audi, Jaguar and Aston Martin are indistinguishable, especially from the side or rear quarter.
Except for the Fusion and the 2 door Jaguar, these are all big cars.
Aston Martin has announced a fully electric version of the Rapide, with 200 mile range. It costs more than twice what the Tesla does. It's not clear whether they'll adopt Tesla's Superchargers or go with the CCS Combo charger that the EU is pushing.
The Fusion is available in a Plug-In Hybrid version.
The price of the Audi, Tesla and Jaguar are pretty similar
06 August 2015
The Republican Field
We're about to see the first culling of the absurd GOP presidential field. Not one of these clowns has a clue about Foreign Policy, Economics or any of several other important topics, and most have presided over at least one catastrophe bad enough to bring the career of someone in a real political party to a screeching, permanent halt. Andy Borowitz has a particularly clear-eyed view of it.
Let's see. We have a reality TV star who was the son of a wealthy real estate mogul and has been able to leverage the extraordinary advantages he was born with into several bankruptcies.
We have a governor who screwed up so badly that a recall election was petitioned for, and run. A few weeks before the recall, he was losing badly. But through gigantic spending and one exceptionally slick and dishonest ad by the Koch brothers later, he managed to squeak by. His policies have significantly damaged his previously fairly successful state...the state next door, with weaker fundamentals but a democratic governor, is doing far better economically. He would be the flagbearer for extreme corruption, except:
We have the governor who presided over massive election fraud in the stealing of the presidency 15 years ago. His term coincided with a massive real estate bubble unleashed by deregulation--much of it presided over by the president he foisted on us--and he left office just in time for the bubble to collapse into the worst recession in 70 years. Therefore he thinks he knows something about economics. His forays into foreign policy discussion have been equally embarrassing. His team is essentially the same team that backed off watching for terrorists and opened the door to 9-11, caused the disaster in Iraq, and hyped the the real estate bubble.
We have a retired governor who doesn't understand the principle of separation of church and state and would like to turn us into a theocracy. He's actually pretty honest about his principles although he doesn't understand why the the founders were so dead set against them. He doesn't know that, or much else, either, although he plays an OK Bass.
We have the two Cubans. One of them is doing a good job of mostly following along with his party's "leadership", which is probably the best way to the front of the pack, but he speaks to the incompetence wing of the party and as far as I can tell, has never done anything of real consequence. His tax cuts while he was speaker of the state house have caused terrible budget problems, but that doesn't distinguish him from any other republican leader.
The other Cuban is slicker, and more openly corrupt, but plainly even less competent. He thinks any media attention is good. If the attention comes from a consequential screw-up or throwing sand in the gears, so much the better.
We have a retired and apparently successful surgeon who somehow managed to get into medical school without understanding one of the most basic principles of biology: evolution
We have a currently serving governor who has bullied and terrorized his state's population so badly that his approval less than a year after his reelection is in the 20s. Several of his close allies are under indictment, several of whom are clearly stepping up to protect their leader, and it seems unlikely he'll make it all the way to next November without being under indictment himself.
We have another physician who is the son of a perennial crackpot candidate. He disagreed with the board which certifies the competence of his class of surgeons, so he used his political connections to create a new certification board. I have no idea if he's competent at his old job. He managed to get elected senator, where he is proving his incompetence. He is more honest than some of these guys, but no smarter. He seems to believe in his dad's crackpot economic theories.
We have the current governor of an important swing state. He seems to be the most competent of the pack, although this is an incredibly low bar. He gives lip service to most of the bad ideas of his party.
At the kids table, we have:
A former governor who thinks the way to show his brain power is to wear glasses and challenge the front runner to a pull-up contest. He is under indictment already. We've had numerous regional politicians who have come back after being convicted of a crime, but this is first for a presidential candidate.
A current governor who does a great Alfred E Newman impersonation. That really is the best thing about him. He did a "rebuttal" to the president's state of the union a few years back and he totally embarrassed himself. In a better party, his career would have been over before he got a chance to bankrupt his state.
A former senator who would like to turn us into a theocracy and actually understands enough about how the legal system of this country works that he might make some progress at it were he to have the chance. He doesn't actually know much about the founding principles of his own religion, either.
A former CEO who came very close to running one of the great high tech companies into the ground, before she was deservedly fired.
And many more. There actually are over 30 declared GOP candidates, but the media only lists 17. Not one is really credible, although three of them have unconscionably large amounts of money to spend.
Let's see. We have a reality TV star who was the son of a wealthy real estate mogul and has been able to leverage the extraordinary advantages he was born with into several bankruptcies.
We have a governor who screwed up so badly that a recall election was petitioned for, and run. A few weeks before the recall, he was losing badly. But through gigantic spending and one exceptionally slick and dishonest ad by the Koch brothers later, he managed to squeak by. His policies have significantly damaged his previously fairly successful state...the state next door, with weaker fundamentals but a democratic governor, is doing far better economically. He would be the flagbearer for extreme corruption, except:
We have the governor who presided over massive election fraud in the stealing of the presidency 15 years ago. His term coincided with a massive real estate bubble unleashed by deregulation--much of it presided over by the president he foisted on us--and he left office just in time for the bubble to collapse into the worst recession in 70 years. Therefore he thinks he knows something about economics. His forays into foreign policy discussion have been equally embarrassing. His team is essentially the same team that backed off watching for terrorists and opened the door to 9-11, caused the disaster in Iraq, and hyped the the real estate bubble.
We have a retired governor who doesn't understand the principle of separation of church and state and would like to turn us into a theocracy. He's actually pretty honest about his principles although he doesn't understand why the the founders were so dead set against them. He doesn't know that, or much else, either, although he plays an OK Bass.
We have the two Cubans. One of them is doing a good job of mostly following along with his party's "leadership", which is probably the best way to the front of the pack, but he speaks to the incompetence wing of the party and as far as I can tell, has never done anything of real consequence. His tax cuts while he was speaker of the state house have caused terrible budget problems, but that doesn't distinguish him from any other republican leader.
The other Cuban is slicker, and more openly corrupt, but plainly even less competent. He thinks any media attention is good. If the attention comes from a consequential screw-up or throwing sand in the gears, so much the better.
We have a retired and apparently successful surgeon who somehow managed to get into medical school without understanding one of the most basic principles of biology: evolution
We have a currently serving governor who has bullied and terrorized his state's population so badly that his approval less than a year after his reelection is in the 20s. Several of his close allies are under indictment, several of whom are clearly stepping up to protect their leader, and it seems unlikely he'll make it all the way to next November without being under indictment himself.
We have another physician who is the son of a perennial crackpot candidate. He disagreed with the board which certifies the competence of his class of surgeons, so he used his political connections to create a new certification board. I have no idea if he's competent at his old job. He managed to get elected senator, where he is proving his incompetence. He is more honest than some of these guys, but no smarter. He seems to believe in his dad's crackpot economic theories.
We have the current governor of an important swing state. He seems to be the most competent of the pack, although this is an incredibly low bar. He gives lip service to most of the bad ideas of his party.
At the kids table, we have:
A former governor who thinks the way to show his brain power is to wear glasses and challenge the front runner to a pull-up contest. He is under indictment already. We've had numerous regional politicians who have come back after being convicted of a crime, but this is first for a presidential candidate.
A current governor who does a great Alfred E Newman impersonation. That really is the best thing about him. He did a "rebuttal" to the president's state of the union a few years back and he totally embarrassed himself. In a better party, his career would have been over before he got a chance to bankrupt his state.
A former senator who would like to turn us into a theocracy and actually understands enough about how the legal system of this country works that he might make some progress at it were he to have the chance. He doesn't actually know much about the founding principles of his own religion, either.
A former CEO who came very close to running one of the great high tech companies into the ground, before she was deservedly fired.
And many more. There actually are over 30 declared GOP candidates, but the media only lists 17. Not one is really credible, although three of them have unconscionably large amounts of money to spend.
31 July 2015
Suggested Supercharger Locations
I've made so many addenda to this I've started a new version here.
Tesla's superchargers are a DC fast car charging technology that makes their Model S and subsequent cars fully capable long range cars. Short of malfunction, there's almost no circumstance that will result in a full charge taking much over an hour, and most of the time, well under half an hour for these cars, which can go 250 miles or so between charge.
As of this writing, Tesla has 206 functioning Supercharger stations in the United States, most of them near to interstate highways and almost all midway between cities. They figure people who are in a city are likely to have access to home or destination charging, which can be slower and charge while you sleep. They are in process on another 20, which from obtaining a license to breaking ground, pouring concrete, doing the wiring and so forth, seems to take a few months.
Where should the next few stations be?
Finish I-90. There's a 244 mile gap between Sheridan WY, and Rapid City, SD. You might be able to make it in an 85kwh car if you go slow. This is a beautiful part of the country for a road trip, and it'd be nice to be able to take a side trip to the Black Hills on the way. There's an obvious place in Gillette, WY. This is the last real gap before I-90 is a transcontinental supercharger route, although it would be helpful to have one near Erie PA.
Finish I-84. The Boise supercharger is under construction and should be turned on any day now. Boise to Tremonton, UT (just north of Salt Lake) is 267 miles. There's an obvious place in Twin Falls, ID, which would serve both I-84 and also US 93 for people going from Boise to Elko or Wendover.
US-1/101 along the west coast. My favorite bits of this are #1, Big Sur, #2, the coast highway near Mendocino, #3, the coast highway near Coos Bay, #4, the redwood empire. There's a station going in at Crescent City. Crescent City to Petaluma is 316 very twisty miles. At least one station is needed. Garberville or Legget is right in the middle in the redwood empire and would serve my #2 and #4. Monterey to Atascadero is about 150 miles along the coast. It'd help if there was something in the middle but it's not desperate. Eugene to Crescent City is about 180 miles...makeable, but it'd help if there was something in the middle. Florence would be about right. Although I've spent the night in Newport and places around there several times and I'd be happy to do it again..If I could get destination charging there, no further help would be necessary.
Olympic Peninsula. The obvious big circle between the Kingston ferry terminal and Centralia is about 300 miles, so something in the middle would be necessary. I'd put it in Forks or Beaver or somewhere like that. Or maybe one in Port Angeles and one in Hoquiam. (Much of this is 101--the same 101 that's in California. I'd love it if they were to put a supercharger every 100 miles or so the full length of 101.)
North Cascades Highway. (US 20). Truly spectacular. One of the most beautiful roads anywhere, and definitely the most beautiful within 200 miles of my home. Go as soon as the snow is clear from the road but not melting too much on the slopes yet--April, maybe. Burlington is just a little too far from Ellensburg and a lot too far from Ritzville. Put it somewhere like Brewster or Omak, so it can serve people doing the north cascades loop (2, 97, 20), and also people going past Grand Coulee
South Cascades: Ellensburg or The Dalles to Seattle via 410 is too long, although 12 to Centralia might work. A small supercharger or even an 80 amp J1772 or HPWC at Naches would be perfect.
Finish I-80. It's 439 miles between existing chargers in Salt Lake City and Cheyenne, WY, and another 499 between Cheyenne and Omaha, NB. That calls for at least 4, better 6 new stations. There's a way around on I-70 that's already been completed but is a few hundred miles longer, so this would not be my top priority, but it should be done.
Finish Route 66. It's now called I-40 and I-44, and all but two of the cities in the song have superchargers already or under construction. Only Joplin, Missouri and Amarillo, Texas are missing, although Winona and San Bernardino have to rely on the town next door... The only real gap is St Louis to Oklahoma City: 512 miles, so it needs 2 stations, better 3. Joplin is nearly in the middle. Amarillo is in a shorter gap--204 miles, which is a little long but it's flat and probably doable. Texas is among those states that have tried to block Tesla's dealer model.
addenda 22 Aug 2015
Permit for an 8 berth Supercharger has been granted for Twin Falls ID. It should open in a few months.
Permit for a Supercharger in Ukiah, CA has been granted. Crescent City to Ukiah is too far so there must be another one coming somewhere between Garberville and Eureka.
I'd like to see US 395 made to be a practical route. My favorite part of this road is between Yosemite and Death Valley. There's already one at Lone Pine, Neatly between Mt Whitney and Death Valley. Lee Vining (the closest point on 395 to Yosemite) is the next obvious place north. Lee Vining to Susanville is too far, so about midway between Reno and Susanville is necessary (I love the mountains just west of Susanville). Next north would be Alturas, then Riley, where 395 comes together with OR 20. (adding Riley would make the mysterious Detroit Lakes charger make more sense) These are mostly obscure little towns in a beautifully desolate area. They can probably all be 2 or 4 berth stations. Tesla's intentionally vague future map seems to put new ones in Reno, Lee Vining, and Bend, OR.
addenda 30 Aug 2015
Construction has begun on a 6 stall Supercharger in Gillette, WY. It should open in a few months.
addenda 26 Sep 2015
Gillette is now open, and a permit has been applied for in Amarillo. Still waiting on Erie to finish I-90, and Joplin and neighbors to finish Route 66/I-44. They may choose instead to head straight east to Nashville, which would include the first supercharger in Arkansas.
addenda 6 Nov 2015
Amarillo is now open and a permit has been granted for Catoosa, OK, which is a suburb of Tulsa, and on I-44. Look for a new ones near Joplin and Buckhorn, MO, which would make the modern version of the old route 66 completely supercharger-enabled from Chicago to L.A. and make Tesla-driving Nat King Cole fans very happy.
Twin Falls, ID, is now open, making Seattle or Portland to Salt Lake City via I-84 completely viable.
Gardnerville, CA is now open and Mammoth Lakes has a permit. Once this is complete, access to the south eastern part of the Sierras along US-395, from Reno to L.A., will be complete. Next comes the north eastern Sierras through Susanville and Alturas. This is a much lower traffic area than the southern part of 395, so I don't expect it to be completed for a while.
addenda 6 Dec 2015
Permit for Eureka, CA has been issued. I'd have guessed it'd be a little farther south. Ukiah to Eureka is 155 fairly hilly miles. Makeable, but just barely, so I'm guessing there'll be another in the long term. I'd have used it last weekend, had any of it been available...Instead I went to Vacaville and I-5. Longer, and much less fun. (I was visiting friends near Santa Rosa).
I found the Springfield to Grant's Pass route to be a little Range-Anxiety inducing. I'm hoping the next station in Oregon is near Roseburg.
Mount Shasta is plainly too small: I stopped there twice: there were between 3 and 6 Teslas at this 4 berth supercharger every time I looked. It's a lovely place though...hard to imagine a better place to wait, if you must.
I also visited Sandy, OR. This location is a pain to get to, and it's hard to imagine doing it unless you're really going to Mount Hood, Sandy, or the town next door, Boring. (this sounds like a joke but it's not) It's far enough as to not be useful at all for Portlanders.
Another route I'd like to see completed is I-15, from LA through Idaho and Montana, right up to the Trans-Canada highway. LA to Salt Lake is complete already, and Butte has a station. I think 5 or 6 more would do it. One complication is that one of the most important sites on that route, Yellowstone NP, is a little far from it. I'd like to see a station at West Yellowstone.
addenda 2 Jan 2016
One logical place for a supercharger would be US-95 between Winemucca, NV and Boise. It's 253 miles, mountainous and often cold--way too far--and there's precious little charging available at all--NEMA 14-50 at RV parks near either end. It's a desolate route but it would be useful for those traveling between western Nevada and eastern Oregon or Washington. To get, for example, between Spokane and Reno, you either have to go 400 miles out of your way to I-5 or 300 miles out of your way through Salt Lake City, relative to this route. Because it's so desolate, it could be a tiny station. Supercharging would be best, of course, but even an 80 amp HPWC near the middle would save most of a day for such travelers. There's a gas station and a tiny motel at a place called Burns Junction, near the middle at the intersection of US-95 and OR-78 that would be perfect.
addenda 16 Feb 2016
Progress on Route 66 is nearing completion: Permits have been issued for Catoosa, OK (near Tulsa) and Rolla, MO. Joplin is midway between these two. Once all three have been issued, it'll be a fairly easy link.
Permit has been issued for Erie, PA. No construction yet.
Ukiah is now open. No visible progress on Eureka or Crescent City. Ukiah-Eureka and Eureka-Grants Pass are just barely doable, so once Eureka is open, the redwood empire will be.
Another song, Willin' by Little Feat, contains the line "I've been from Tuscon to Tucumcari, Tehachapi to Tonapah" Tuscon is 64 miles from the nearest Supercharger, near Phoenix. There's already a supercharger at Tucumcari, NM. The route is a little circuitous, but doable. Work on I-10 and I-25 will make this better. Tehachapi is near Bakersfield on CA-58. There's a supercharger near there at Mojave. A permit has been issued for Tonapah, NV, and once it's completed, it will be an easy route by supercharger. Tonapah, AZ is just outside of Phoenix and getting there from Tehachapi is already easy.
Burns, OR came into the national news since my last comment here, where I mentioned nearby Burns Junction. There are several RV plugs in the Burns/Malheur area, but getting there in a Tesla will be slow and take a lot of planning. I'd put it low down in my list of priorities though. For the time being, Malheur bird watchers will need an internal combustion engine.
addenda 11 Sep 2016
Since my last update, Eureka and Crescent City, CA have opened as well as Seaside and Lincoln City, OR. Permits have been issued for Bandon, OR and Aberdeen, WA, and once they are complete, it will be possible to use 101 by supercharging all the way from San Diego to Forks. But once you get there, you're constrained to slow chargers. Something needs to be built between Port Angeles and Forks.
Bend, OR is mystifying to me. There must be a squeaky wheel somewhere near there. Not that I object, but I think there are a bunch of places that should be higher priority.
395 is complete, Reno to LA. No signs of progress north of Reno. There's still no good Reno-Spokane route.
US-95 is complete Yuma, AZ on the Mexican border, through Las Vegas, to near Reno and Winnemucca, in northern NV. Two more stations on the part between Winnemucca and Boise would make it a viable connection to Spokane and points north.
I-15, LA to Butte, MT is almost complete with several stations near Yellowstone.
Route 66 will be complete once the stations at Springfield and Rollo, MO are up and running. I'm only slightly disappointed they skipped Joplin.
There are 4 new stations going in along I80 in Iowa and Nebraska. The rest of Nebraska and all of Whyoming remain before I-80 is finished.
No signs of progress on either I-10 or I-94.
I-35 is complete, San Antonio to Duluth.
Centralia, WA, has started having waits. This would be reduced by adding a station somewhere near Longview. It's an easy130 miles from Seattle, and 150 miles from Longview to Springfield, converting two stops into one.
Tesla's superchargers are a DC fast car charging technology that makes their Model S and subsequent cars fully capable long range cars. Short of malfunction, there's almost no circumstance that will result in a full charge taking much over an hour, and most of the time, well under half an hour for these cars, which can go 250 miles or so between charge.
As of this writing, Tesla has 206 functioning Supercharger stations in the United States, most of them near to interstate highways and almost all midway between cities. They figure people who are in a city are likely to have access to home or destination charging, which can be slower and charge while you sleep. They are in process on another 20, which from obtaining a license to breaking ground, pouring concrete, doing the wiring and so forth, seems to take a few months.
Where should the next few stations be?
Finish I-90. There's a 244 mile gap between Sheridan WY, and Rapid City, SD. You might be able to make it in an 85kwh car if you go slow. This is a beautiful part of the country for a road trip, and it'd be nice to be able to take a side trip to the Black Hills on the way. There's an obvious place in Gillette, WY. This is the last real gap before I-90 is a transcontinental supercharger route, although it would be helpful to have one near Erie PA.
Finish I-84. The Boise supercharger is under construction and should be turned on any day now. Boise to Tremonton, UT (just north of Salt Lake) is 267 miles. There's an obvious place in Twin Falls, ID, which would serve both I-84 and also US 93 for people going from Boise to Elko or Wendover.
US-1/101 along the west coast. My favorite bits of this are #1, Big Sur, #2, the coast highway near Mendocino, #3, the coast highway near Coos Bay, #4, the redwood empire. There's a station going in at Crescent City. Crescent City to Petaluma is 316 very twisty miles. At least one station is needed. Garberville or Legget is right in the middle in the redwood empire and would serve my #2 and #4. Monterey to Atascadero is about 150 miles along the coast. It'd help if there was something in the middle but it's not desperate. Eugene to Crescent City is about 180 miles...makeable, but it'd help if there was something in the middle. Florence would be about right. Although I've spent the night in Newport and places around there several times and I'd be happy to do it again..If I could get destination charging there, no further help would be necessary.
Olympic Peninsula. The obvious big circle between the Kingston ferry terminal and Centralia is about 300 miles, so something in the middle would be necessary. I'd put it in Forks or Beaver or somewhere like that. Or maybe one in Port Angeles and one in Hoquiam. (Much of this is 101--the same 101 that's in California. I'd love it if they were to put a supercharger every 100 miles or so the full length of 101.)
North Cascades Highway. (US 20). Truly spectacular. One of the most beautiful roads anywhere, and definitely the most beautiful within 200 miles of my home. Go as soon as the snow is clear from the road but not melting too much on the slopes yet--April, maybe. Burlington is just a little too far from Ellensburg and a lot too far from Ritzville. Put it somewhere like Brewster or Omak, so it can serve people doing the north cascades loop (2, 97, 20), and also people going past Grand Coulee
South Cascades: Ellensburg or The Dalles to Seattle via 410 is too long, although 12 to Centralia might work. A small supercharger or even an 80 amp J1772 or HPWC at Naches would be perfect.
Finish I-80. It's 439 miles between existing chargers in Salt Lake City and Cheyenne, WY, and another 499 between Cheyenne and Omaha, NB. That calls for at least 4, better 6 new stations. There's a way around on I-70 that's already been completed but is a few hundred miles longer, so this would not be my top priority, but it should be done.
Finish Route 66. It's now called I-40 and I-44, and all but two of the cities in the song have superchargers already or under construction. Only Joplin, Missouri and Amarillo, Texas are missing, although Winona and San Bernardino have to rely on the town next door... The only real gap is St Louis to Oklahoma City: 512 miles, so it needs 2 stations, better 3. Joplin is nearly in the middle. Amarillo is in a shorter gap--204 miles, which is a little long but it's flat and probably doable. Texas is among those states that have tried to block Tesla's dealer model.
addenda 22 Aug 2015
Permit for an 8 berth Supercharger has been granted for Twin Falls ID. It should open in a few months.
Permit for a Supercharger in Ukiah, CA has been granted. Crescent City to Ukiah is too far so there must be another one coming somewhere between Garberville and Eureka.
I'd like to see US 395 made to be a practical route. My favorite part of this road is between Yosemite and Death Valley. There's already one at Lone Pine, Neatly between Mt Whitney and Death Valley. Lee Vining (the closest point on 395 to Yosemite) is the next obvious place north. Lee Vining to Susanville is too far, so about midway between Reno and Susanville is necessary (I love the mountains just west of Susanville). Next north would be Alturas, then Riley, where 395 comes together with OR 20. (adding Riley would make the mysterious Detroit Lakes charger make more sense) These are mostly obscure little towns in a beautifully desolate area. They can probably all be 2 or 4 berth stations. Tesla's intentionally vague future map seems to put new ones in Reno, Lee Vining, and Bend, OR.
addenda 30 Aug 2015
Construction has begun on a 6 stall Supercharger in Gillette, WY. It should open in a few months.
addenda 26 Sep 2015
Gillette is now open, and a permit has been applied for in Amarillo. Still waiting on Erie to finish I-90, and Joplin and neighbors to finish Route 66/I-44. They may choose instead to head straight east to Nashville, which would include the first supercharger in Arkansas.
addenda 6 Nov 2015
Amarillo is now open and a permit has been granted for Catoosa, OK, which is a suburb of Tulsa, and on I-44. Look for a new ones near Joplin and Buckhorn, MO, which would make the modern version of the old route 66 completely supercharger-enabled from Chicago to L.A. and make Tesla-driving Nat King Cole fans very happy.
Twin Falls, ID, is now open, making Seattle or Portland to Salt Lake City via I-84 completely viable.
Gardnerville, CA is now open and Mammoth Lakes has a permit. Once this is complete, access to the south eastern part of the Sierras along US-395, from Reno to L.A., will be complete. Next comes the north eastern Sierras through Susanville and Alturas. This is a much lower traffic area than the southern part of 395, so I don't expect it to be completed for a while.
addenda 6 Dec 2015
Permit for Eureka, CA has been issued. I'd have guessed it'd be a little farther south. Ukiah to Eureka is 155 fairly hilly miles. Makeable, but just barely, so I'm guessing there'll be another in the long term. I'd have used it last weekend, had any of it been available...Instead I went to Vacaville and I-5. Longer, and much less fun. (I was visiting friends near Santa Rosa).
I found the Springfield to Grant's Pass route to be a little Range-Anxiety inducing. I'm hoping the next station in Oregon is near Roseburg.
Mount Shasta is plainly too small: I stopped there twice: there were between 3 and 6 Teslas at this 4 berth supercharger every time I looked. It's a lovely place though...hard to imagine a better place to wait, if you must.
I also visited Sandy, OR. This location is a pain to get to, and it's hard to imagine doing it unless you're really going to Mount Hood, Sandy, or the town next door, Boring. (this sounds like a joke but it's not) It's far enough as to not be useful at all for Portlanders.
Another route I'd like to see completed is I-15, from LA through Idaho and Montana, right up to the Trans-Canada highway. LA to Salt Lake is complete already, and Butte has a station. I think 5 or 6 more would do it. One complication is that one of the most important sites on that route, Yellowstone NP, is a little far from it. I'd like to see a station at West Yellowstone.
addenda 2 Jan 2016
One logical place for a supercharger would be US-95 between Winemucca, NV and Boise. It's 253 miles, mountainous and often cold--way too far--and there's precious little charging available at all--NEMA 14-50 at RV parks near either end. It's a desolate route but it would be useful for those traveling between western Nevada and eastern Oregon or Washington. To get, for example, between Spokane and Reno, you either have to go 400 miles out of your way to I-5 or 300 miles out of your way through Salt Lake City, relative to this route. Because it's so desolate, it could be a tiny station. Supercharging would be best, of course, but even an 80 amp HPWC near the middle would save most of a day for such travelers. There's a gas station and a tiny motel at a place called Burns Junction, near the middle at the intersection of US-95 and OR-78 that would be perfect.
addenda 16 Feb 2016
Progress on Route 66 is nearing completion: Permits have been issued for Catoosa, OK (near Tulsa) and Rolla, MO. Joplin is midway between these two. Once all three have been issued, it'll be a fairly easy link.
Permit has been issued for Erie, PA. No construction yet.
Ukiah is now open. No visible progress on Eureka or Crescent City. Ukiah-Eureka and Eureka-Grants Pass are just barely doable, so once Eureka is open, the redwood empire will be.
Another song, Willin' by Little Feat, contains the line "I've been from Tuscon to Tucumcari, Tehachapi to Tonapah" Tuscon is 64 miles from the nearest Supercharger, near Phoenix. There's already a supercharger at Tucumcari, NM. The route is a little circuitous, but doable. Work on I-10 and I-25 will make this better. Tehachapi is near Bakersfield on CA-58. There's a supercharger near there at Mojave. A permit has been issued for Tonapah, NV, and once it's completed, it will be an easy route by supercharger. Tonapah, AZ is just outside of Phoenix and getting there from Tehachapi is already easy.
Burns, OR came into the national news since my last comment here, where I mentioned nearby Burns Junction. There are several RV plugs in the Burns/Malheur area, but getting there in a Tesla will be slow and take a lot of planning. I'd put it low down in my list of priorities though. For the time being, Malheur bird watchers will need an internal combustion engine.
addenda 11 Sep 2016
Since my last update, Eureka and Crescent City, CA have opened as well as Seaside and Lincoln City, OR. Permits have been issued for Bandon, OR and Aberdeen, WA, and once they are complete, it will be possible to use 101 by supercharging all the way from San Diego to Forks. But once you get there, you're constrained to slow chargers. Something needs to be built between Port Angeles and Forks.
Bend, OR is mystifying to me. There must be a squeaky wheel somewhere near there. Not that I object, but I think there are a bunch of places that should be higher priority.
395 is complete, Reno to LA. No signs of progress north of Reno. There's still no good Reno-Spokane route.
US-95 is complete Yuma, AZ on the Mexican border, through Las Vegas, to near Reno and Winnemucca, in northern NV. Two more stations on the part between Winnemucca and Boise would make it a viable connection to Spokane and points north.
I-15, LA to Butte, MT is almost complete with several stations near Yellowstone.
Route 66 will be complete once the stations at Springfield and Rollo, MO are up and running. I'm only slightly disappointed they skipped Joplin.
There are 4 new stations going in along I80 in Iowa and Nebraska. The rest of Nebraska and all of Whyoming remain before I-80 is finished.
No signs of progress on either I-10 or I-94.
I-35 is complete, San Antonio to Duluth.
Centralia, WA, has started having waits. This would be reduced by adding a station somewhere near Longview. It's an easy130 miles from Seattle, and 150 miles from Longview to Springfield, converting two stops into one.
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