Tesla's original plan was:
1: develop an expensive, very sporty electric car for early adopters
2: use the income from that to develop a less expensive electric car for a wider market
3: use the income from that to develop a mass market electric car
4: provide solar charging.
They've basically done just what they proposed, with a few distractions, some productive, some less so. The roadster was truly groundbreaking and worked just as they'd hoped. It also taught them a lot of things and the Model S was a much better, more practical car. The supercharger network was a terrific idea. It was what convinced me I could buy a Model S. The gigafactory also has a lot of potential. The Model 3 is not on the market yet but they've sold nearly half a million places in line at $1K each.
But the model X was a form factor copied from one of the poorest selling SUVs on the market, the BMW X4, and it hasn't sold well either. Had it been a more conventional SUV, it could have been a great car, but instead they went down a rabbithole with the falconwing doors. And they undermined the one thing that might have been able to do well, haul a lot of people and stuff, by putting a fastback on it.
Now that the master plan is basically complete, they have announced master plan part deux. It includes a pickup truck, an Crossover based on the model 3 chassis, and a class 8 truck.
Class 8 trucks are a commodity, produced by companies like Paccar (Kenworth and Peterbilt), Mack, International, and so forth. You can put any drive system you want into one, provided it fits the form factor. Tesla co-founder Ian Wright is showing the way: Wrightspeed will install one of their hybrid drivetrains into the truck of your choosing. So far he's aiming at Class 6 and 7 trucks, a little smaller than long haulers, but include things like garbage trucks. His drive is a series hybrid, with a fully electric drive train, using a gas turbine as a range extender. Tesla might be able to be a new player in the heavy truck market, but it seems like it's a pretty risky play. I think the series hybrid with range extender is the way to go: truckers drive for 8 hour days with required sleeping times, and to power that fully electric will be a battery in the gigawatt/hour range. 10 tons or so, even with Lithium. This will significantly impact the load the thing can carry. A ton or two of battery (100-200kwh) can be charged overnight anywhere with J1772 or NEMA 14-50 and give a hundred or so miles of electric range or climb a significant mountain. A small engine, like wrightspeed's turbine, can keep the thing topped up in the flats and leave the steeps to the battery.
The pickup truck is an obvious winner. Someone apparently pointed out to Musk that Europeans don't buy pickups, they buy vans instead, so now they're thinking about that. Tesla should make a pickup/van chassis with a long travel suspension and the cab far forward, so the cargo box can be as big as possible. This creates lots of options: Moving vans and contractor vehicles are obvious. Camper vans. What they should have done with the model X: a minibus. I don't think fully driverless is much less than 10 years out, but it's coming and driverless minibus and taxicabs are clearly be part of that. Dare I suggest a taxicab that can comfortably carry more than 4 people besides the driver, like the old Checker, or those in Great Britain?
The crossover based on the model 3 is a popular idea at the moment. Another should be a new version of the roadster. The roadster is substantially smaller than the 3 so this may not work out.
I love my Model S. It has a few problems.
1: there are still lots of places I'd like to go that don't yet have superchargers. most of them have slower chargers but not all, and I'd really prefer to get there than spend it waiting for my car to charge somewhere in route. This is obviously getting better, but not if they have too many more screwups like the model X.
2: It's too big. I live in the city and it's too big for compact parking places and a lot of narrow city streets. The model 3 will address at least some of this.
3: It's too ostentatious. I'd rather a stealthier car. I don't think the model 3 will fix this.
I want two things:
a compact, non-ostentatious electric car with at least 200 miles of range. I'd prefer a two door, boxier car than a 4 door or sleek looking car.
a pickup truck that I can use to haul lumber, appliances and tow my 5000 lb trailer up a steep hill. I'd like to be able to put a camper on it, and it'd be nice if it had 250 miles range towing the trailer.
