Case 1: there’s
nothing there, apart from opportunistic exploitation of the tax law. Upside of releasing returns: disarms the
attacks. Downside: it’s a weapon that
can only be used once. No matter what,
Romney makes a lot of money and pays an embarrassingly small amount of taxes
compared to average Americans pay.
Upside of holding on: he looks determined/stubborn in the face of
opposition , slightly countering the extensive evidence of flip-flopping/etch-a-sketch. Downside: his enemies have a mystery weapon
they can hold against him.
Case 2: he paid 0% taxes in one or more years because of
legal but unfair exploitation of the tax law.
Upside of releasing: it disarms the attacks. Downside: the unfairness of tax law becomes a
top issue in the campaign, with Romney a flag bearer for the bad guys. Upside of holding: this doesn’t happen. Downside: the attacks continue.
Case 3: he hasn’t tithed appropriately to his church. He’s supposed to give 10%. If he hasn’t done it, there may be some quid
pro quo with the church or another Mormon politician, but for this case I’ll
pretend there wasn’t. Upside of
releasing: most people will see that
there’s nothing really important there, although it’s very embarrassing for him. The attacks are disarmed. Downside: A lot of religious conservatives
will look at him with some distain. This
won’t make anybody vote for his opponent, but it may make a bunch of his
current supporters not vote at all.
Upside of not releasing: these
votes stay with Romney. Downside: the
attacks continue.
Case 4: he hasn’t tithed appropriately in return for some
quid pro quo, presumably from someone connected with LDS. This spreads the damage to people Romney may
value and may lead to real jail time for them, while leaving Romney unscathed,
except for failing to protect his friends.
Upside of releasing: None. Downside
of releasing: Romney’s friends go to
jail, blaming Romney. Upside of holding:
he keeps his friends. Downside of
holding: the attacks continue.
Case 5: Romney’s tax returns show evidence of some
especially rapacious but legal behavior, most likely in connection with the
economic crisis of 2007-08. Economic
upside of releasing: None. Downside:
Romney’s credibility as a businessman who plays fair is completely destroyed
and he will become the face of the crisis and economic collapse. he loses 48-50 states in the election. Upside of holding on: this doesn’t happen. Downside: the attacks continue.
Case 6: Romney’s
returns show evidence of some crime by himself or those close to him: Upside of releasing: none. Downside: he or his close ally goes to
jail. Upside of holding on: this doesn’t
happen and he maintains his determined look.
Downside: the attacks continue.
One of the big advantages of being president is that you get
to pick your attorney general and federal prosecutors. If you or those close to you are guilty of
some crime, you can steer the justice department away from prosecuting those
crimes. It will go badly for such a
president if he’s found out, and controlling the justice department may be the
only way to prevent that. This is almost certainly the reason Sheldon
Adelson is so determined to buy somebody a presidency: there’s pretty good evidence that he,personally, is guilty of violating the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in Macau,
against the advice of his lawyers, so it’s a knowing violation.
No comments:
Post a Comment