We have installed as leader a man determined to undermine nearly all the institutions that have made America a great country, and given the reigns of government to a party so corrupt as to collaborate with him, with a large opposition so emasculated that they can only watch in horror as we are destroyed. I think there is a chance that our institutions will survive, but not without enormous damage. Whether this is fatal or not is unclear. Much depends upon the order of events.
I think there is about a 20% chance that we end in nuclear holocaust. Putin's forces manipulated the election and are plainly in a position to take enormous advantage, and it seems pretty likely that Trump is aware of what he owes them (possibly including blackmail) and is installing a pro-Russia Secretary of State and intends to end sanctions and other things that have been hurting Russia. But he is a shallow, petty, vindictive man and it is probable that some slight or disagreement will shatter the alliance. Will he resort to nuclear weapons? Most likely not, but for the first time since the start of the Cold War, we have a president who doesn't seem to quite understand about Mutually Assured Destruction.
Russia is not the only nuclear threat though. Trump and Tillerson have both stumbled badly on China already and Trump is plainly trying to make the trade war with them more hostile. Almost 6% of China's GDP comes from exports to the US, which China is certainly happy about and would like to preserve, while Trump wants to sharply reduce it. China probably won't respond to tariffs or other trade intervention with nuclear threats, but they may put up other trade complications and Trump might respond to one of those with a nuclear threat.
Pakistan and North Korea are both less than friendly toward us and both have nuclear weapons. I can't see them attacking us, but I can see a Trump first strike, which may force the hand of one of their allies. If Trump breaks the nuclear agreement with Iran as promised, it is likely that they will be able to build a bomb in a few years instead of being prevented from working on one for ten years as the agreement imposes. Again, a Trump first strike is a likely outcome. This probably won't happen for four or five years, by which time Trump will either be out of office or dictator for life.
Trump plainly wants to make himself dictator. There are lots of checks and balances to make this difficult, but Trump is plainly aware of them and is trying to end them. The most important is a functioning free press. The internet has done terrible harm to the media, both in that real reporting is having more difficulty getting funded and fake reporting has found lots of distribution. Although there have been previous presidents that could not have gained office without a substantial lift from propaganda, Trump is the first that would have no support at all without it. He has set about attacking the real media, calling the NY Times and others "dishonest" for quoting him accurately, blocking credentials or refusing to answer questions from networks that have been critical of him, constantly emphasizing distractions when there are real issues. The press has made it clear that they won't back down, but if congress supports him, he might win.
The scariest possibility, it seems to me, is what I'm calling a "Reichstag fire" incident. Hitler was made chancellor of Germany on 30 Jan 1933 after his party won a plurality in the German Parliament, called the "Reichstag", but his party only had 33% of the seats and stiff opposition from the other parties, which would not cooperate with him. After less than a month of this, the Reichstag building burned down (27 Feb 1933), almost certainly started by supporters of Hitler although blamed on outside agitators, and the following day, Hitler demanded, and got, the "Reichstag Fire Decree", which suspended most of the civil rights of the German people and removed most of the power of the Reichstag.
The US constitution prevents such a decree from happening here except "during rebellion or invasion", but depending upon circumstances, it's not clear how much of a barrier that will be. For the moment, Trump has the support of congress and after a terrorist act they might fall for it. I would not put it past Trump to arrange the terrorist act and some patsies, just as Hitler did. There are plenty of people who know this history, but not enough of them in congress, and there may be 50 million voters or more who would not believe it of Trump, no matter how clear the evidence.
Obviously, if this happens, America is over. We will be a police state within a year or two and will never have a fair election again. There will be some good times for the American economy during this, just as there was for Germany in the mid '30s, but it won't last for long and it's very likely that it ends in nuclear holocaust.
I rate the chance of Trump becoming a dictator of this sort at around 10%. If he tries it and fails, he will be impeached or worse. I'm sure he knows that the time to try it is while he's still got a lot of support in congress and before too many more of his 62 million realize the gigantic mistake they've made.
Highly likely is that Trump succeeds in wrecking enough American institutions that the voters repudiate him in 2020. Over half of Americans are hurting, but there's a bubble in urban real estate, banking, insurance and a few other fields, which is sending the stock market to record heights. Like all bubbles, this one will end and since Trump and his congress have no clue whatever about macroeconomics, they will react very poorly when that happens, extending the crash to hurt nearly everybody, while largely immunizing the people that caused it, just as in past crashes. I think there's a real possibility of a depression worse than the 1930s.
I rate the likelihood of such a crash occurring at about 90%, but one of the other outcomes might occur first. The crash might be part of what brings on the "Reichstag fire" or nuclear confrontation. So I rank the likelihood of a terrible crash and depression at about 50%, Trump and the congress responding correctly to the crash with massive deficit spending at about 10%, and the crash not happening at about 10%. If the crash occurs during the election of 2018, our chances go way up: the Ds will win a huge majority in congress and respond better to events, and Trump will be impeached, with Pence defanged and unable to get re-elected.
Most likely what will happen is that Trump will go too far on some issue for congressional republicans who are already wary of him, and they will impeach him. He's already done more than enough to earn it...he violated the Emoluments clause the second he took the oath, and there's surely lots more. He'll quit (faking illness) before the hearings get far. After nuclear holocaust and police state, this is one of the worst outcomes, because Pence will be a rubber stamp for congressional republicans worst impulses, where Trump at least gives lip service to protecting regular people.
Whatever happens, after a year or two of Trump-Pence administration, America will be a lot less great than it has been. I think going back to the pre-ACA health insurance system is about a 50-50 chance, privatizing medicare (turning it into something very similar to what ACA is today) at around 30%, privatizing social security also at around 30%, almost complete destruction of financial regulation at about 80%, further destruction of unions at about 90%, devastating rule changes to the EPA close to 100%, rapidly worsening climate change at about 90%, lots more. All of this is likely to cause a huge spike in unemployment and will certainly cause a huge spike in American misery.
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