America's Cup Scoring

The dumb guy non-sailor on this weekend's America's Cup broadcasts kept saying that "the first to win 9, wins the series".  This is not correct.  It's a best of 17 series.  Had both teams started out at zero, it would have been correct, but team Oracle was found to have cheated in an earlier series with illegally positioned corrector weights.  (Even though it's a very different type of boat, we've had a similar problem in the J24 class).  Several sailors are being banned (I assume this is rule 69 but it's the same dumb guy non-sailor doing the reporting, so it's not clear), and Oracle started the series with a 2 point deficit.  The winner of a best of 17 is the first boat to have a lead which cannot be overcome in the number of races remaining.  It turns out, if Emirates Team New Zealand is the first to 8, they win.  Oracle has to win 10 (again, netting 8 points) to win the series.

So what the dumb guy non-sailor should say is: the first to 8 points wins.  Really, not at all the same thing.

As I write this, Oracle just won race 4, giving New Zealand a 3:1 (score 3:-1 a 4 point advantage)

Some examples: Had Team Emirates NZ gone 7:0, they would have a 9 point advantage with 10 races left.  If O won them all, they would win.

Had NZ gone 8:0, they'd have a 10 point advantage with 9 races left.  O could no longer win, so the series would be over.
If NZ goes 8:1, they'd have a 9 point advantage with 8 races left.  O can't win.
If NZ goes 8:2, they'd have an 8 point advantage with 7 races left.  O can't win.
If NZ goes 8:3, they'd have a 7 point advantage with 6 races left.  O can't win.
...
If NZ goes 8:9, they'd have a 1 point advantage with no races left.   O can't win.  (I'm sort of hoping for this particular outcome.   It's the most possible races while still sending the cup somewhere else.  It's a terrific venue and as a native of the Bay Area who spent a lot of time sailing 505s at that very spot, I'm proud of what they came up with.  But I want to get it out of Larry's hands.  The AC72 rule is insanely dangerous and Larry is way too arrogant to change it.  It's already killed one world class sailor and it will surely kill more.)

If O had gone 9:0, they'd have a 7 point advantage with 8 races left.  NZ could still win.
If O had gone 10:0, they'd have an 8 point advantage with 7 races left.  NZ couldn't win.
If O goes 9:3, they'd have a 4 point advantage with 5 races left.  NZ could still win
If O goes 10:3, they'd have a 5 point advantage with 4 races left.  NZ couldn't win.

addenda 14 Sep 2013

There's some evidence that it's not a best of 17 series after all; that it's a first to 9 points series.  If this is the case, it could potentially run to 19 races: NZ wins 8 and O wins 10 would be a tie with 8 points each after 18 races.  The 19th race would thus be the tiebreaker.  The score, after today, is NZ 6 and O 0 (with 2 wins neutralizing the penalty).

The event immediately following day 5's racing is mixed martial arts fighting, and I stupidly left the TV on for a few minutes.  Pretty lame.  The same dumb guy was announcing and he seemed to know a little more.

addenda 20 Sep 2013

 It turns out the way the penalty is applied is odd: the first two wins by the penalized boat do not count in the scoring, and thereafter it's best of 17.  This translates to "first to 9 points wins."   This seems strange and convoluted but as long as it's applied consistently, I suppose it's fair.  It means the number of races sailed could range between 9 and 19.

I think the way the wind speed limit is defined is correct (add the current and wind vectors and if it exceeds the threshold, it's too much to sail, period.)     The threshold speed (23 knots) is also about right for the boats involved.  Since the wind exceeds that threshold basically every day on an ebb at the chosen venue, they probably should have shortened the wing a few percent.

As today's first race made clear, the time limit is waaaaay too short. 40 minutes for a 10 nautical mile course is 15 knots average vmg.  The boats can't do that in less than about 9 knots of wind and it turns out that windspeed of 7-10 knots is close to optimal for getting the best match racing.  This is true of most sailboats and these things are no exception.  Match racing delays the race.   Time limits are for putting a stupidly slow race out of its misery--basically when there's a long period of insufficient wind to move the boats at all.  A time limit of 70-90 minutes would make a lot better sense.  So would something more adaptive: neither boat moving relative to the water for 15 minutes.