19 September 2014

Recessions by president

Here are all the recessions that occurred since 1947, plus the three main ones that occurred between the world wars, listed by the president and year they began, along with unemployment.  Before 1947, BLS didn't collect these statistics, so these are just approximations for those three.

Truman 1949: 3.9-7.9, back to 3.3 by 1951.
Eisenhower 1953: 2.5-5.9, back to 4.0 by 1955
Eisenhower 1957: 4.1 to 7.8, back to 5.2 by 1959
Eisenhower 1960: 4.1 to 7.1, back to 5.5 by 1962
Kennedy and LBJ did not have any recessions, both lowered unemployment through their terms
Nixon 1969: 3.9 to 6.1, only recovered to 4.9 by 1973.
Nixon 1973: 4.9 to 9.0, only recovered to 5.9 by 1979
Carter 1979: 5.9 to 7.8, only recovered to 7.2 by 1981
Reagan 1981: 7.2 to 10.8, back to 7.4 by 1984
Bush I 1990: 5.4 to 7.7, back to 3.9 by 2000
Clinton 2000: 3.9 to 5.8, no real recovery before 9/11
Bush II 2008: 4.4 to 10.0, back to 6.1 by 2014
Hoover 1929: 4% to 22%, began coming down very soon after FDR took office
FDR 1937: 14 to 17%.
Wilson 1920: 3.5 to 8%

My rankings for these guys is based on the number and size of the recessions that began during their administrations.  You can't blame a guy for things that began before he took office. 

Hoover is the worst, although it was mainly the policies of his two immediate predecessors that were at fault.   But he handled it as badly as he possibly could have.

Bush II is by far the worst modern--had Bush reacted as badly as Hoover had, his recession would have been as bad as the great depression.  Bush and his party deserve 99.9% of the credit for causing it, and they deserve 90% of the credit for preventing it from being cured faster.  I blame Obama for not being strong enough to take the gun away from the psychos, but the damage they are causing is the Rs fault, not O's.

Nixon is next, with a big recession and a small one.  Not entirely his fault but his price controls made it far worse than it needed to be.  (The provocation for the Arab oil embargo that caused the recession--unequivocal US support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war of 1973, was substantially Nixon's doing although it's difficult to find fault in him for that)

Reagan and Wilson are tied for 4th, each with a big recession.  Reagan's was caused by conscious policy choices, which his staff (and Volcker) wisely realized were ruinous and quickly reversed.  GWB and present day republicans fail to notice that part.  Wilson's was caused by the end of the war and the influenza panic.  Wilson himself was very sick at the time and was bullied by conservative advisers into doing the wrong thing.

Eisenhower is #6 with 3 small recessions

Truman, Bush I, Carter and Clinton all rank about equal, each with a medium or small recession that ended quickly.  Carter's recession is really a legacy of Nixon and OPEC.  It was really fairly small but he was politically unable to do anything about it because he was hamstrung by the Iran Hostage Crisis.  Clinton's recession was also quite small and mild (although I personally was hurt by it), but I downgrade him because he supported Phil Gramm, Alan Greenspan, and their friends when they set the time bombs that destroyed the economy in 2008.

FDR's small recession was caused by backing away from policies that had been working.   He stopped it quickly, but it was a disaster for the country, because it damaged him politically, and he was no longer able to resist the austerians who had pressed him to do it.

Kennedy/LBJ and Obama have no recessions that can be blamed on them.  Note also that ALL of the significant hikes in the deficit since the end of WWII have been during three presidents: Nixon, Reagan and Bush II.  All others have reduced the deficit or held it steady--including Johnson, who started a major new safety net program and a major wasteful war.   Since WWI, the 4(5) presidents that have been best for the economy are:  #1: FDR.  #2: Kennedy/Johnson, #3 Clinton, #4 Obama.



http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=UNRATE,U6RATE,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression#mediaviewer/File:US_Unemployment_1910-1960.gif

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