25 March 2016

Bernie Sanders Tax Rates

Several sources are talking about how much Bernie Sanders would raise your taxes.  For just about everybody, he would, but you get a lot more for them: free health care, free college, better bank regulation, lots more.  The only people who are getting hit hard are people who have been treated very gently for the last 30 years.  Here are a few hypothetical households and how they would fare:

Single, $20K income, 3 kids. (e.g. a single parent earning $10/hr)
  2016 tax: $155, 0.8% effective rate
  Bernie tax: $189.1, 0.9% effective rate.
Such a household is probably already on medicaid.  if they had college loans, this is would be a huge savings.  These are the people (and especially their children) who will be helped most: they will have an opportunity to go to college, where unless they get a "free ride" scholarship, they presently do not.

Single, $50K income, no dependents, no investment income or deductions  (i.e. a recent college grad)
  2016 tax: $5719, effective rate 11.4%
  Bernie tax: 1131.55+4880.50+1373.60=7385.65  14.8%
  2016 tax+$2K for medical insurance for a 26 year old: $7719 a 15.4% effective rate.
  +5K for college loans: $12719.

Married, 2 kids, $50K income, no investment income or deductions  (a "typical" family)
  2016 tax: $3468, effective rate 6.9%
  Bernie tax: 2263.10+1849=$4112.10, effective rate 8.2%
  2016 tax+$3600 for medical insurance for 36 year old parents and young kids $7468: 14.9% effective rate.  Bernie saves $3300 a year.
  +5K for college loans $12468

Married, 2 kids, $100K income, no investment income or deductions  (a 96th percentile family)
  2016 tax: $11368, effective rate 11.4%
  Bernie tax: 2263.10+9761+1088=$13112.10, effective rate 13.1%
  2016 tax+$3600 for medical insurance for 36 year old parents and young kids $14968: 15% effective rate.  Bernie saves $1800 a year.
  +5K for college loans $19968

Married, 2 kids, $1M ordinary income, $200K investment income, $100K deductions (a typical 0.1% family, e.g. a very successful doctor or lawyer or upper manager in a big company)
  2016 tax: $333,869, effective rate 27.8%
  Bernie tax:  2263.10+9761+20,835.2+24,024.1+6529.6+98K+229,584.36=384,467.76 or 32% effective rate.
  Health care and college loan costs are negligible on this income.  Bernie costs them a few percent.

Single, no ordinary income, $10M investment income, no deductions (a wealthy, stingy widow)
  2016 tax: $1,972,340.    19.2% effective rate.
  Bernie tax:  2263.10+9761+20,835.2+24,024.1+6529.6+98K+678K+4,012,837.4=$4,852,250.4 or 48.5% effective rate.

Single, no ordinary income, $10M investment income, $4M deductions (a wealthy, generous widow)
  2016 tax: $1,173,600.    11.7% effective rate.
  Bernie tax:  2263.10+9761+20,835.2+24,024.1+6529.6+98K+678K+2,610,400=$3,449,813 or 34.5% effective rate.

Single, $20M ordinary income, no investments or deductions (I can't imagine anyone like this; it's constructed to create the extreme case)
  2016 tax: $7,868,864,  39.3% effective rate.
  Bernie tax: 2263.10+9761+20,835.2+24,024.1+6529.6+98K+678K+4016K+5,355,800.1 =$10,211,213.1 or  51.1% effective rate

I found several sources bogusly claiming Bernie would raise your taxes to over 90%.  I can't work out any version where this would be correct.  The nearest I can come is someone using the "imputed income" scam to add corporate income taxes to personal income and add percentages with different bases rather than dollars.

I found some more credible sources computing numbers in the 70s by adding payroll taxes (on which Bernie would lift the cap.  It's presently $117K) and state income taxes.  e.g., california's top marginal rate is 13.1%, and the payroll tax on my imaginary $20M ordinary income earner would be on the whole thing, where today it's only on 5% of it:  51.1+13.1+6.2 = 70.4%.  But this is at best an apples to oranges comparison.  None of the incomes above include payroll or state (or property) tax.  Even if you imagine this to be correct, this person ends up with $6M of after tax income.   They should use some of it to hire an accountant who is not as incompetent as they are...

sources:
http://www.moneychimp.com/features/tax_calculator.htm
http://taxfoundation.org/article/details-and-analysis-senator-bernie-sanders-s-tax-plan
https://www.wahealthplanfinder.org/HBEWeb/Annon_DisplayHomePage.action

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